Can Music Publishing Keep Booming?
Written by djfrosty on October 24, 2024
As Billboard reported Thursday (Oct. 24), global royalty collections rose 7.6% to a new high of 11.75 billion euros ($10.9 billion, based on the average exchange rate for 2023), according to the Paris-based trade organization CISAC (the Confédération Internationale des Sociétés d´Auteurs et Compositeurs). That article covers the basic news — digital collections grew 9.6% to 4.52 billion euros ($4.18 billion); radio and television collections declined 5.3% to 3.37 billion euros ($3.11 billion) after a significant jump the previous year; and live and background music collections grew 21.8% to 3.06 billion euros ($2.82 billion), fueled mostly by a resurgent concert business. There’s more detail in the news article.
Now let’s take a longer-term look at the state of the market to see where all the recent growth has come from and what that implies about the future. Since 2019, the music collections business has grown from 8.92 billion euros ($8.24 million) to 11.75 billion euros ($10.9 billion), an increase of 31.7% over five years, which is annualized growth of more than 6%. That arguably presents a more accurate picture of market trends than year-by-year changes from this period, since the concert business was so disrupted by the pandemic.
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Most of that growth came from digital, which grew 119% — from 2.06 billion euros ($1.9 billion) in 2019 to 4.52 billion euros ($4.2 billion) last year. Perhaps more important, the 2.46 billion euros ($2.27 billion) of digital growth represents almost all the growth in the business during that time. And that growth is starting to slow. In 2023, digital growth slowed from 35.1% to 9.6%, which contributed to an overall slowing of growth from 29% to 7.6%. Some of that is inevitable — subscription streaming growth has leveled off in the U.S. and Western Europe, the biggest markets that traditionally drive the business. Together, the U.S., Western Europe and Canada account for almost 75% of collections revenue. Digital revenue will almost certainly keep growing — from price increases and new products, among other factors, but the wonder years of digital growth may be in the past.
The state of global royalty collections offers other reasons for optimism, though. First, a caveat: These numbers don’t provide a perfect picture of the music publishing business, or even public performance royalties, since some digital royalties are paid through direct deals. These numbers represent the best global picture of the collecting business available, though, and it seems safe to say that the direct deals, for which numbers aren’t available, roughly follow these trends. This almost certainly understates the growth of the music publishing business, though, since it doesn’t include U.S. mechanical publishing royalties, any synch rights and a variety of new kinds of deals.
The challenge for collecting societies is that the second largest source of revenue, from TV and radio play for compositions, does not seem to be growing. It was 3.4 billion euros ($3.14 billion) in 2019 and it’s now 3.37 billion euros ($3.11 billion) — a more significant decline than it seems, given inflation. Since this revenue is tied to TV and radio businesses in most markets, some of it seems to have gone to digital, which has replaced it as the most important source of revenue.
There’s more hope in the live business. The disruption of the pandemic made this hard to see, but live and background music royalties are growing steadily — from 2.71 billion euros ($2.5 billion) in 2019 to 3.06 billion euros ($2.83 billion) last year — a rise of 12.7%. That’s not so big, divided over five years, but live is growing faster than the rest of the category, and growth in ticket prices for the biggest tours will result in more royalty revenue in territories where that’s linked to ticket prices. That trend is expected to continue, too. That could make live music an important source of growth in both established markets and new ones.
Right now, the collecting society revenue breaks down as follows: 38.5% of money comes from digital; 28.7% from TV and radio; 26.1% from live and background music; 3.2% from CD and video sales; 2.4% from private copy levies (which the U.S. does not have); and 1.1% from other sources. How might that look five years from now? It’s hard to imagine digital climbing above half since that would imply a significant decline for TV and radio revenue. Live royalties should climb, maybe significantly, and background music revenue could climb in some markets, although it’s not likely to grow so much in the U.S. and Western Europe.
The origins of collections revenue will also change: There’s also really impressive growth coming from parts of the world that barely generated much revenue five years ago. Collections in Latin America rose 26.2% last year but 108.2% over the last two years, driven by Mexico and Brazil and the spread of streaming throughout Latin America. Right now, that impressive growth doesn’t change the overall picture much — the region still only accounts for 5.9% of collections revenue. But if that growth pattern continues, the market could become significant soon. Over the last five years, Latin America collections went from 4.1% of the global total to the aforementioned 5.9% share.
The same goes for some markets in Asia. Overall, there’s not much growth there — it’s down 0.3% because of Japanese currency fluctuations but up 6.8% on a constant currency basis. But Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines, where between 80% and 85% of collections revenue comes from digital, are up 270.4%, 111.6% and 325.8%, respectively, over the last five years. Those increases aren’t big enough in revenue terms to lift the overall business, but they’re growing fast enough that they could make a difference five years from now. Africa, hailed as having so much potential, seems to be stuck: It went from accounting for .7% of global music collections to .6%. That won’t matter much to overall revenue anytime soon. But it shows how the music business still faces serious challenges in Africa, as well as how those challenges impact real, working creators. These problems are complicated, but they are also urgent: Creators in Africa deserve better.
Growth is continuing in bigger markets, however; the top 10 markets grew 6.3% last year. Over the past five years, the U.S. and Canada grew 44.4% and 38.9% respectively, with the U.K., France and Germany up 44.5%, 34.7% and 20.2%. The strongest growth over that time took place in Korea, up 70.9%. The health and stability of the larger markets should make it easier for the fast-growing smaller ones to improve the entire business.