Will Green Day Be the Anointed ‘Saviors’ on the Billboard 200 This Week?

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Jan. 27), Green Day look to score the second new No. 1 on the Billboard 200 in 2024 with the debut of their 14th LP, Saviors.  

Green Day, Saviors (Reprise): Green Day’s 15-track latest set was released on Friday (Jan. 19) with hype billing it as their big attempt at a 2024 return-to-form – even featuring production by Rob Cavallo, knob-twiddler behind most of the band’s classic ‘90s and ‘00s LPs. The set has drawn mostly positive reviews, and kicks off what should be a very eventful year for the Rock and Roll Hall of Famers, as they’re celebrating the respective 20th and 30th anniversaries of their epochal albums Dookie and American Idiot on their much-anticipated upcoming stadium tour (alongside fellow ‘90s alt hitmakers Smashing Pumpkins and Rancid), performing each album in its entirety.  

The album is expected to sell in strong numbers, helped by the large number of variants in which the LP is currently available. Along with the digital album    and standard CD, there’s also a signed CD sold through the band’s webstore, one cassette and at least 16 vinyl variants (mostly varying in color), including exclusives for Amazon, Barnes & Noble, indie record stores, Target, Walmart and more. There’s also two boxed sets for purchase, each with a branded T-shirt and a CD inside, as well as a Fan Pack offer with a T-shirt and a CD. 

If Saviors can reach No. 1 on the Billboard 200 – and it will be a challenge, given that Green Day has never performed particularly well in streaming – it would mark their third consecutive decade with a No. 1 album. They most recently topped the chart with Revolution Radio in 2016, and previously did it with both Idiot and its 2009 follow-up, 21st Century Breakdown. (Surprisingly, they never bested the chart in the ‘90s, with both Dookie and its 1995 follow-up Insomniac topping out at No. 2.)  

21 Savage, American Dream (Slaughter Gang/Epic): Green Day’s primary obstacle in the way of their fourth No. 1 album is the current reigning champ. This week, American Dream became the first new album to top the chart in 2024, moving an impressive 133,000 units – mostly in streaming – while also launching the biggest unaccompanied Billboard Hot 100 solo hit of 21 Savage’s career in the quickly viral, No. 5-debuting “Redrum.” The numbers were impressive enough to further confirm Savage’s superstar status, without some of the usual qualifications that have dogged his legacy in the past.  

The numbers for American Dream will likely dip considerably in its second week, but the album should still have a strong shot at staying atop the chart for a second week this frame, with its streaming performance remaining steady – the set continues to hold down seven of the top 20 spots on Apple Music’s real-time chart, including pole position for “Redrum.” If the race is particularly close, it also wouldn’t be shocking to see Savage’s team pull out a last-minute deluxe edition with a few new songs to boost the final streaming numbers, as has become increasingly common practice for big rap and pop albums in the past few years. 

IN THE MIX 

Eladio Carrión, Sol María (Rimas): The biggest release for the week in the Latin music world comes from Puerto Rican-American rapper Eladio Carrión. His 17-track new album Sol María features guest appearances from big names like Yandel, Rauw Alejandro, Arcángel and Sech, and is led by the Latin airplay hit “TQMQA.” The set follows 2023’s 3MEN2 KBRN, which became his first LP to hit the top 20 of the Billboard 200, debuting at No. 16 in April.  

Lil Dicky, Penith (The DAVE Soundtrack): With rapper-comedian-actor Lil Dicky’s acclaimed (and very loosely autobiographical) TV sitcom Dave having wrapped its third season last Spring, its star decided it was time for the show to release an official soundtrack. That finally arrived last Friday with Penith, a 22-track collection of music included throughout the series – some in fuller versions than featured on the show. Star producer Benny Blanco, a recurring guest star on the show, worked on most of the tracks, but West Coast rap fixture YG is the only big-name guest, appearing on “YG’s Interlude.”  

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