CMA Awards 2025 Predictions: Who Will Take Home The Top Honors?

Will it be ladies’ night at the 59^th Country Music Association Awards on Wednesday (Nov. 19): For the first time, three women solo artists — Ella Langley, Megan Moroney and Lainey Wilson — share the lead with six nominations each. 

Wilson will also host the show, which will air live from Nashville’s Bridgestone Arena on ABC starting at 8 p.m. ET, making her only the third woman to solo host, following Dolly Parton and Reba McEntire.

The men then follow with strong showings for Zach Top landing five nominations and Riley Green and Cody Johnson with four each. 

Morgan Wallen, who received three nominations, will look to repeat as entertainer of the year.

He’s not the only one looking to keep their winning streaks going: Wilson has a three-year run as female vocalist of the year, while Chris Stapleton has won male vocalist four years straight. Old Dominion has taken home the vocal group of the year seven years in a row. 

The eligibility period for nominated releases runs July 1, 2024 to June 30, 2025, with the song, album or video having to be released within that period or reach national prominence.

The evening will also include performances from BigXThaPlug with Luke Combs, Stapleton with Miranda Lambert and Shaboozey with Stephen Wilson Jr., as well as Kelsea Ballerini, Brandi Carlile, Kenny Chesney, Green, Langley, Little Big Town, Patty Loveless, Moroney, Old Dominion, The Red Clay Strays, Top, Keith Urban, Tucker Wetmore and Lainey Wilson

Here are Billboard’s predictions on who will emerge victorious in select categories, from Melinda Newman (executive editor, West Coast and Nashville) and Jessica Nicholson (associate editor, Nashville).

ENTERTAINER OF THE YEAR

Luke Combs
Cody Johnson
Chris Stapleton
Morgan Wallen
Lainey Wilson

Newman: Cody Johnson, who lands his first nomination, takes Jelly Roll’s spot this year, with the other four nominees repeating from last year. Wilson, reigning champ Wallen and Combs have all captured the evening’s biggest award before, while Stapleton is looking for his first win here with his ninth nomination. All five artists had great years with sold-out tours, but Wilson was the one who spread her wings the most, completing her first international tour (to be fair, Wallen and Combs both toured internationally in 2024 and will again in 2026), and she’s hosting the show, which feels perfect to have her emerge from backstage to win. Wallen is the genre’s biggest star right now, but his unwillingness to show up at the awards last year may have unfairly left a bad taste in voters’ mouths. 

Will win: Lainey Wilson

Nicholson: Wilson, reigning CMA entertainer of the year Wallen and Luke Combs are all previous winners in the category and are vying for the title again this year. Meanwhile, Stapleton has proven himself to be one of country music’s steadiest headlining touring draws, while Cody Johnson’s hitmaking, hard-touring ways have earned him a spot in the category this year. This marks Wilson’s first year as a solo host of the CMA Awards, while she’s also embarked on her Whirlwind World Tour this year, in addition to building on her reputation as a multi-media star. Look for Lainey to reclaim her entertainer of the year title this year.

Will win: Lainey Wilson

ALBUM OF THE YEAR

Award goes to artist, producer(s) and mix engineer(s)

Am I Okay? – Megan Moroney (Producer: Kristian Bush; Mix Engineer: Justin Niebank)
Cold Beer & Country Music – Zach Top (Producer: Carson Chamberlain ;Mix Engineer: Matt Rovey)
F-1 Trillion – Post Malone (Producers: Louis Bell, Charlie Handsome, Hoskins; Mix Engineer: Ryan Gore)
I’m The Problem – Morgan Wallen (Producers: Jacob Durrett, Charlie Handsome, Joey Moi; Mix Engineers: Charlie Handsome, Joey Moi)
Whirlwind – Lainey Wilson (Producer: Jay Joyce; Mix Engineers: Jason Hall, Jay Joyce)

Newman: Newcomers Moroney and Top are taking the genre by storm, with Moroney also bringing a raft of young girls into the country tent, similar to how Taylor Swift did nearly 20 (!!) years ago… just go to one of her concerts and you’ll see. Top is leading a neo-traditionalist movement that has endearing him to the industry who likes his pure country stance, similar to last year’s winner, Cody Johnson (with his Leather album). Even though it came out too late to be eligible last year, it feels like Post Malone’s  F-1 Trillion’s time has come and gone. Wallen clearly had the most commercially successfully album and Wilson continues to do excellent work, but it feels like Top’s year.

Will win: Cold Beer and Country Music

Nicholson: Megan Moroney’s Am I Okay? has propelled her career to new heights thanks to hits like the title track and “No Caller ID.” Meanwhile, Whirlwind saw Wilson drop new hits including the romantic “4x4xU” and “Somewhere Over Laredo,” and Wallen’s I’m The Problem spent 12 nonconsecutive weeks atop the all-genre Billboard 200. Post Malone’s collaborative-heavy F-1 Trillion also proved a favorite with country fans, while Zac Top’s Cold Beer & Country Music declared the talented country newcomer has arrived in a major way. However, Wilson previously won in this category for her album Bell Bottom Country, and her music has surged even more in depth and popularity since then, so look for Wilson to take home the win here.

Will win: Whirlwind

SONG OF THE YEAR

Award goes to songwriter(s)

“4x4xU” (Songwriters: Jon Decious, Aaron Raitiere, Lainey Wilson)
“Am I Okay?” (Songwriters: Jessie Jo Dillon, Luke Laird, Megan Moroney)
“I Never Lie” (Songwriters: Carson Chamberlain, Tim Nichols, Zach Top)
“Texas” (Songwriters: Johnny Clawson, Josh Dorr, Lalo Guzman, Kyle Sturrock)
“you look like you love me” (Songwriters: Riley Green, Ella Langley, Aaron Raitiere)

Newman: Each one of these songs feels like it took the artist, whether established superstar or newbie or somewhere in between, to a new level, becoming an important part of their identity.  “Texas,” the only entry not co-written by the performing artist, gave Blake Shelton one of his biggest hits in five years (and his first on new label home, BBR/BMG Nashville), while “Am I Okay” and “I Never Lie” helped solidify Moroney and Top as artists who look like they’ll be here a while. Wilson just keeps getting stronger and stronger with the creative “4X4XU,” while Green and Langley have already shown that “you look like you love me” is a career song for them. But again, Top should have the inside track here.

Will win: “I Never Lie”

Nicholson: The song of the year category places more weight on top-shelf songcraft rather than commercial success, and each of these songs has become a signature hit for the artist that recorded it (or, for four out of five of this year’s nominees, also co-wrote it). Country fans were treated to the dreaminess of “4x4xU,” the bewildered romance of “Am I Okay?,” the flirty “You Look Like You Love Me,” and the slow-burn yearning of “Texas.” But Zach Top’s neo-traditional “I Never Lie,” with its sing-along charm and sly hook, has taken the Washington native to new career heights and will be a tough competitor in this category.

Will win: “I Never Lie”

SINGLE OF THE YEAR 

Award goes to artist(s), producer(s) and mix engineer(s)

“4x4xU” – Lainey Wilson (Producer: Jay Joyce; Mix Engineers: Jason Hall, Jay Joyce)
“Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” – Luke Combs (Producers: Luke Combs, Chip Matthews, Jonathan Singleton; Mix Engineer: Chip Matthews)
“Am I Okay?” – Megan Moroney (Producer: Kristian Bush; Mix Engineer: Justin Niebank)
“I Never Lie” – Zach Top (Producer: Carson Chamberlain; Mix Engineer: Matt Rovey)
“you look like you love me” – Ella Langley & Riley Green (Producer: Will Bundy; Mix Engineer: Jim Cooley)

Newman: There’s not a lot of difference between this category and song of the year, other than “Texas” is replaced by “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma,” Combs’ tune from Twisters. Each song resonated with listeners, with all at least reaching the top five on Billboard’s Country Airplay chart, but there are some notable omissions, including Jelly Roll’s emotional “Liar” and Morgan Wallen’s “I’m the Problem.” Of this batch, Top’s delivery on “I Never Lie,” combined with the neo-traditionalist production, was the best-sounding song of the batch.

Will win: “I Never Lie”

Nicholson: Each of the songs nominated here made an indelible impact on the Billboard charts this year, but the double-shot charisma of Langley and Green, plus the song’s old-school charm and flirty talking verses, was inescapable over the past year. Look for “You Look Like You Love Me” to take the win here.

Will win: “You Look Like You Love Me”

FEMALE VOCALIST OF THE YEAR

Kelsea Ballerini
Miranda Lambert
Ella Langley
Megan Moroney
Lainey Wilson

Newman: With her eighth nomination, inconceivably Ballerini is still looking for her first win here — while Wilson has created her own mini-dynasty, winning the past three years. The OG is Lambert, with seven wins, and she returns to the category after not being nominated last year. Langley and Moroney are the newcomers who are blazing paths with their big voices. It feels almost impossible to choose, and it may be a little too early for Langley and Moroney (though Wilson won both best new artist and this category in 2022). Still, feels like Wilson has the momentum behind her. 

Will win: Lainey Wilson

Nicholson: Lainey Wilson has emerged as the winner in this category for the past three consecutive years, and with another entertainer of the year nomination and her role as host this year, she is a strong contender to maintain her winning streak. But she also has stiff competition, thanks to Megan Moroney, whose Am I Okay? album and accompanying singles have further propelled her career. Ella Langley has lobbed hits at the charts including “Weren’t For The Wind” and “You Look Like You Love Me,” while Kelsea Ballerini had one of her biggest years to date, hitting new chart milestones and launching her successful headlining arena tour. Miranda Lambert also keeps cementing her status as a legendary artist, thanks to touring and her album Postcards From Texas. Still, this category will likely see the multi-talented Wilson continue her winning ways.

Will win: Lainey Wilson

MALE VOCALIST OF THE YEAR

Luke Combs
Cody Johnson
Chris Stapleton
Zach Top
Morgan Wallen

Newman: Stapleton has won eight of the last 10 years, with a brief punctuation when Combs took home the award twice. All are repeat nominees from last year, except Top, who replaces Jelly Roll. Stapleton hasn’t put out a full new album since 2023, but he just feels unbeatable… and with that voice, who is going to say he isn’t deserving? Zach Top has come on so strong, it wouldn’t be surprising it voters to decide it’s time to anoint a new king. But it still feels like Stapleton has a lock on this category.

Will win: Chris Stapleton

Nicholson: While Stapleton is the perennial favorite in this category, he has plenty of competition this year from fellow stadium tour headliners Luke Combs and Morgan Wallen, while Cody Johnson has proven himself to be a steady hitmaker and concert headliner, and neo-traditional artist Zach Top’s star continues to surge. But Stapleton has had a stranglehold on this category for good reason, so look for him to continue his reign.

Will win: Chris Stapleton

VOCAL GROUP OF THE YEAR

Lady A
Little Big Town
Old Dominion
Rascal Flatts
The Red Clay Strays

Newman: This category repeats from last year other than Rascal Flatts, who takes Zac Brown Band’s spot, returning for the first time since 2020. Acts tend to start winning in this category and just keep winning: Old Dominion has won the past seven years, Little Big Town for the six consecutive years before that, Lady A for three years in a row before that and Rascal Flatts for six years before that. Old Dominion has a good chance to prevail again — and is more than deserving — but the Red Clay Strays are bringing an exciting energy and new audience into the genre. Time to pass the torch, even if for just one year. 

Will win: The Red Clay Strays 

Nicholson: Old Dominion, who released its latest project Barbara this year, is looking to pick up an eighth consecutive win in this category, and is up against other previous category winners Little Big Town, Lady A and Rascal Flatts. The Red Clay Strays pick up their second nomination in the category, thanks to impactful songs like “Drowning,” as well as treks both as openers on The Rolling Stones’ Hackney Diamonds Tour and as headliners at some pretty big venues. The Red Clay Strays are carving their own path and steadily gaining fans with their electrifying performances, while Old Dominion has also stayed consistent in touring and recording, while showcasing an ever-deeping songcraft.

Will win: Old Dominion

VOCAL DUO OF THE YEAR

Brooks & Dunn
Brothers Osborne
Dan + Shay
Maddie & Tae
The War and Treaty

Newman: This category has been among the most static, with the same contenders for the third year in a row. Brooks & Dunn are the reigning champs, winning last year for the first time since 2006 and breaking Brothers Osbornes’ three-year streak. Maddie & Tae are looking for their first win with their 11^th nomination. Dan + Shay are gearing up for a second act — but this is a contest between Brooks & Dunn, who continue to enjoy their revival more than 30 years into their career, and Brothers Osborne.

Will win: Brooks & Dunn 

Nicholson: Last year, Brooks & Dunn made a major comeback in this category, after winning their 15th vocal duo of the accolade and first trophy in the category since 2006. In late 2024, they also issued their Reboot II project, teaming again with many of their country music colleagues to record versions of B&D classics. Brothers Osborne is a longtime favorite in this category with six total wins, while Dan + Shay previously won this category twice. Maddie & Tae have earned their 11th nomination in the category, while The War and Treaty have picked up three total nominations in the category. Look for Brooks & Dunn to reclaim their winner status in this category again this year.

Will win: Brooks & Dunn

NEW ARTIST OF THE YEAR

Ella Langley
Shaboozey
Zach Top
Tucker Wetmore
Stephen Wilson Jr.

Newman: One of this year’s most competitive categories features five acts, all of whom have had breakthrough years. The CMA Awards allow artists to be nominated up to two times in this category and Shaboozey and Top return after losing to Megan Moroney last year. Though he hasn’t had the radio success that the other four nominees have, Stephen Wilson Jr. continues to increase his critical acclaim and has a deeply passionate fan base within the voting body. Langley is the only previous CMA Awards winner, having snagged the musical event trophy last year for “You Look Like You Love Me” with Riley Green. It’s almost impossible to choose between Langley, Shaboozey and Top, all of whom are leaving their marks already on country music. 

Will win: Zach Top

Nicholson: Each of the artists in this category had incredible years, including the first-timers in this category, Langley, Wetmore and Wilson Jr. Langley followed her Country Airplay chart-topper, the Riley Green collab “You Look Like You Love Me,” with the top five hit “Weren’t For The Wind,” embarked on a headlining tour, as well as opening some shows on Morgan Wallen’s stadium tour. Shaboozey headlined his Great American Roadshow Tour, and followed his Billboard Hot 100 chart-topping hit “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” with another Country Airplay chart-topper, “Good News.”

Meanwhile, Top followed his breakthrough album with his sophomore set Ain’t In It For My Health, and continued headlining his own shows, in addition to opening for Dierks Bentley’s Broken Branches Tour and earned a top 10 Country Airplay hit with “I Never Lie.” Wetmore issued his debut album What Not To, which included his Country Airplay top 5 hit “Wind Up Missin’ You.” Wilson Jr. continued building his fanbase and issued the critically acclaimed album søn of dad, while releasing collabs with Shaboozey and Noah Cyrus. Still, as one of the evening’s overall top nominees, look for Langley to pull off the win here.

Will win: Ella Langley

MUSICAL EVENT OF THE YEAR Award goes to Artists and Producer(s)

“Don’t Mind If I Do” – Riley Green (featuring Ella Langley) (Producers: Scott Borchetta, Jimmy Harnen, Dann Huff)
“Hard Fought Hallelujah” – Brandon Lake with Jelly Roll (Producer: Micah Nichols)
“I’m Gonna Love You” – Cody Johnson (with Carrie Underwood) (Producer: Trent Willmon)
“Pour Me A Drink” – Post Malone (feat. Blake Shelton) (Producers: Louis Bell, Charlie Handsome)
“You Had To Be There” – Megan Moroney (feat. Kenny Chesney) (Producer: Kristian Bush)

Newman: Green and Langley won this award last year for “You Look Like You Love Me,” and they face stiff competition again for their follow up, “Don’t Mind If I Do.”  All five songs are strong, and feature partnerships that feel like great, natural fits, as opposed to sounding Frankensteined together for commercial effect.  For example, Moroney and Chesney’s ode to her rise sounds organic given her time opening for him, while Jelly Roll and Brandon Lake take Lake’s song to a new level, given Jelly Roll’s public struggles. Not a clear leader here, but a slight edge goes to Jelly Roll and Lake — especially given how, oddly, this is the only award that Jelly Roll is up for this year. 

Will win: “”Hard Fought Hallelujah”

Nicholson: Riley Green and Ella Langley took this category last year with their hit collab “You Look Like You Love Me,” and their latest collab again showcases their musical chemistry. They also have tough competition, as the Jelly Roll/Brandon Lake collaboration “Hard Fought Hallelujah” found success on both the Hot Country Songs and Hot Christian Songs charts, while “I’m Gonna Love You,” “Pour Me a Drink” and “You Had to Be There” also each found country chart success. Still, the multi-genre juggernaut duet between the charismatic Jelly Roll and top CCM artist Brandon Lake is likely to take the lead here.

Will win: “Hard Fought Hallelujah”