Ranking the 2026 Grammy Album of the Year Nominees From Least to Most Likely to Win

Nominated participants: Big Jay, La Paciencia, MAG & Tainy, producers; Antonio Caraballo, Josh Gudwin, Luis Amed Irizarry & Roberto José Rosado Torres, engineers/mixers; Marco Daniel Borrero, Benito Antonio Martínez Ocasio, Marcos Efrain Masis, Jay Anthony Nuñez & Roberto José Rosado Torres, songwriters; Colin Leonard, mastering engineer

Notes: Leila Cobo, Billboard’s chief content officer, Latin/Español, made the case for Bunny’s album beautifully in her story announcing the Latin Grammy winners: “Bad Bunny, the big favorite, walked away with the all-important album of the year win for his acclaimed DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS, the collection that took him back to his Puerto Rican roots, spurred a love fest with his island and its traditions, spawned his record-breaking residency and ultimately paved the road for his upcoming Super Bowl LX halftime show performance.”

The Recording Academy announced on Nov. 3 that it had extended invitations to all voting members of the Latin Recording Academy to join their membership as well. Many took them up on the offer. That infusion of new voters could help Bunny win album of the year on his second try.

Also, the racist backlash that followed the announcement that Bunny was set to headline the Super Bowl halftime show could work in his favor in Grammy voting, as voters seek to show that they have his back.

There’s a precedent for Grammy voters taking the political climate into account in their voting. The Chicks, then known as Dixie Chicks, swept the Grammys in 2007 – including album, record and song of the year – at least in part because voters were signaling that they supported the group in their war of words with then-President George W. Bush.

The trio experienced a severe backlash after lead singer Natalie Maines harshly criticized Bush during a 2003 concert in London. Her comment (“Just so you know, we’re ashamed the president of the United States is from Texas”) led to country radio boycotts and a shutout for the group in the 2006 CMA Awards nominations. The Chicks’ sweep of all five of their Grammy nominations was widely seen as Recording Academy members using their votes to support the band and take a stand against what we can now see was an early example of cancel culture. From the Grammy stage, Maines said: “I think people are using their freedom of speech with all these awards. We get the message.” 

If Bunny wins, he’ll become just the second artist to win in the same year that he or she performed at the Super Bowl halftime show. If I gave you 30 guesses to name the first performer to do this, you probably still wouldn’t get it, so I’ll just tell you: Tony Bennett participated in the multi-artist halftime show in January 1995, a little more than one month before he won album of the year for MTV Unplugged.

Whether he wins or just misses this year, Bunny is getting closer to winning the top award. In 2023, when he was first nominated in this category for Un Verano Sin Ti, Bunny was thought to be a bit further back in the pack. Harry Styles’ Harry’s House won the award; Beyoncé’s Renaissance is assumed to have come in second; and Bunny’s album probably fought it out for third place with Adele’s 30 and Kendrick Lamar’s Mr. Morale & the Big Steppers.