Will Sabrina Carpenter’s ‘Manchild’ Take Alex Warren’s ‘Ordinary’ Out of the No. 1 Spot?  

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated June 21, we look at the chances of Sabrina Carpenter’s new single to enter atop the Hot 100 – and the competition it faces from Alex Warren’s reigning champ.  

Sabrina Carpenter, “Manchild” (Island/Republic): When “Ordinary” was revealed as the No. 1 single on the Billboard Hot 100 a couple weeks ago, rocketing past all three Morgan Wallen songs that had moved above it in the top three the week before, it looked like it might have a relatively clear path to rule the chart for a long time. Then, last Tuesday (June 3), an announcement came that made it clear its competition would soon be stiffer than expected: Sabrina Carpenter, one of the decade’s biggest breakout pop stars, would be returning with a brand new single. 

“Manchild,” written and produced by Carpenter along with the dream team behind her first Hot 100 No. 1, “Please Please Please” — Jack Antonoff and Amy Allen – debuted on Thursday night (June 5) after just a few days of teasing. The song, packed with the hooks and humor that elevated Carpenter to superstar status during her Short n’ Sweet era, also came with an (at times literally) explosive new video seemingly custom-designed for screengrab memes. It got off to a similarly incendiary start on streaming, bowing atop the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart with about twice the streams of the No. 2 song.  

Those streaming numbers fell significantly over the weekend, but have rebounded slightly over the week, and now look to portend a very strong showing for “Manchild” on DSPs. Whether it will be enough to help the song capture the Hot 100’s top spot is another matter – particularly as it gets started on radio, where it’s off to a solid start, even threatening a Radio Songs chart debut in its first week, but obviously lags behind Carpenter’s enduring 2024 hits “Espresso” and “Taste,” which still have a fairly considerable presence on the airwaves.  

It will help “Manchild” that the song is selling fairly well, having spent most of the past four days in the top five of iTunes’ real-time chart. It even returned to No. 1 following the Tuesday discounting of the song to 69 cents – which, along with a vinyl single now available for purchase on her webstore (including the exclusive B-side “inside of your head when you’ve just won an argument with a man”), would seem to indicate that Carpenter’s team likely feels like the No. 1 is within reach. It should be a close race regardless, and may come down to the final days – if not the final hours – of tracking-week consumption. 

Alex Warren, “Ordinary” (Atlantic): After capturing the top spot on the Hot 100 two weeks ago, “Ordinary” shows no real signs of slowing down, as its radio play continues to rise – up 8% in all-format airplay June 6-9, according to Luminate — and streaming and sales both remain highly stable. Despite its follow-up, the Jelly Roll collab “Bloodline,” debuting last week, it doesn’t seem like Alex Warren‘s new song has sapped any of the “Ordinary” momentum, as the latter remains the early Song of the Summer frontrunner.  

Even if “Manchild” does manage to topple it on next week’s chart, “Ordinary” has the consistent cross-platform success to challenge for the top spot for many weeks still to come – and could take back over from Carpenter’s latest almost immediately, once the first-week streaming and sales numbers from the latter inevitably recede in week two. And Warren announced last week that the release of new set You’ll Be All Right, Kid (Pt. 2) will arrive on July 18, and likely further extend the prominence of “Ordinary” even deeper into the summer. 

Morgan Wallen, “What I Want” (feat. Tate McRae) & “Just in Case” (Mercury/Big Loud/Republic): Speaking of songs still growing on radio, both of Morgan Wallen’s top-performing songs on the Hot 100 are also continuing to make their presence increasingly felt on the radio: Country radio single “Just in Case” climbs 38-37 on Radio Songs this week is up 7% in all-format play June 6-9, while the Tate McRae-featuring “What I Want,” being promoted to pop, surges 37%. The problem, as always with Morgan, is himself: Older hits “I’m the Problem,” “Love Somebody” and even his spring 2024 Post Malone collab “I Had Some Help” are still outperforming the rising songs across radio formats, and Wallen may need to be patient with those songs’ slow demises on the airwaves before those newer songs can fully take over.