Will Tate McRae Score Her First No. 1 Album Atop the Billboard 200 Next Week?

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Mar. 8, we look at the chances of Tate McRae’s So Close to What to become the pop hitmaker’s first album to top the chart.  

Tate McRae, So Close to What (RCA): For folks who had been missing the days when pop stars were Pop Stars, few rising artists in the genre were as exciting as Canadian dancer-turned-singer Tate McRae. While McRae first broke out in the early decade with the relatively downtempo “You Broke Me First,” it soon became clear she was more at home delivering high-energy pop music with creative music videos and top-notch choreography – evoking Ariana Grande with her 2023 smash “Greedy,” which hit the chart’s top five in early 2024, and even earning some Britney Spears comparisons on that song’s parent album, Think Later.  

McRae has wasted no time in building on the moment from that set – which peaked at No. 4 on the Billboard 200 in December 2023 – with the release last Friday of her third album So Close to What. The 15-track set features guest appearances from rapper Flo Milli (“Bloodonmyhands”) and her hitmaker BF The Kid LAROI (“I Know Love”), as well as the advance singles “It’s OK I’m OK,” “2 Hands” and “Sports Car.” Each of those songs debuted in the top 40 of the Billboard Hot 100, further establishing McRae as one of the hottest artists in pop and helping to build hype for the new set.  

Could the album cap her years-long rise to stardom with a No. 1 debut on the Billboard 200? McRae is certainly going for it: So Close is available for purchase in three different CD variants (one signed), a cassette, seven different vinyl variants (two signed) and even four different digital albums, including one version with an alternate cover and three bonus tracks: “Siren Sounds,” now also available on streaming, and the purchase-only “Better Than I Was” and “Call My Bluff.” In addition, McRae has been on something of a media blitz in the past week or so, appearing on The Tonight Show With Jimmy Fallon on Tuesday night, while also doing video interviews with Zane Lowe, AmEx, Jake Shane, iHeartRadio, Allure, Variety and Billboard. 

The album is expected to sell well, and has also been off to a strong start streaming. McRae is pushing the set’s “Revolving Door” as a new single — releasing one of her physical and intricately choreographed videos yet along with it – and the song is performing very well out of the gate, ranking in the top 10 on both the Apple Music realtime chart and Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart. What’s more, the full album tracklist has been littering both listings since the album’s debut, with the majority of its 15 tracks still ranking in the top 100. It should all up to the biggest release week yet for McRae, with a bow likely in the six digits.  

Will it be enough to get the album the top spot? Well, McRae shouldn’t face much competition from fellow new releases – no other sets released on Friday are expected to even threaten the top 10 – but of course, she’ll need to post a sizeable number to get past some of the LPs that have been regulars in the chart’s top tier the past week. Still, McRae has to like her chances of getting that No. 1, and of claiming a W for the old-school pop stars atop the charts this week. 

PartyNextDoor & Drake, $ome $exy $ongs 4 U (OVO/Santa Anna/Republic): McRae’s strongest competition this week may come from a couple of her countrymen, with fellow Canucks PartyNextDoor and Drake reigning on the chart this week with their new collaborative set $ome $exy $ongs 4 U. The album — which includes the 6 God claiming “I feel like Tate McRae” on its “Small Town Fame” — will obviously drop in consumption following its 246,000-unit debut week, and as of publishing there haven’t been any new issues of the album to help goose second-week sales. But the album is still streaming pretty well, with “Die Trying,” “Gimme a Hug” and particularly “Nokia” hanging around as the set’s breakout hits. It may or may not be enough to fend off McRae from the top spot this week, but it should be enough to stave off any cackling about the album being a total one-week wonder.  

Kendrick Lamar, GNX (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Of course, there’s no mentioning Drake these days – or anyone else, really – without also mentioning the perpetually grinning Kung Fu Kenny, still on his victory lap following a triumphant 2024 that’s led into an even-more celebratory early 2025. We may have finally gone a weekend without “Not Like Us” being performed to a building full of celebrities rapping along to it, but Lamar still does have four of the top five songs in the country, three of which come from his late-2024 blockbuster GNX, which rates at No. 2 on the Billboard 200 this week and is likely to hang around the top of the chart essentially for the foreseeable future. In the mid-2020s, the road to the Super Bowl goes through Kansas City, and the road to the top of the Billboard charts goes through Kendrick Lamar.  

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