Universal Music Group Shares Jump After New Spotify Deal, Amazon Price Increase
Written by djfrosty on January 31, 2025
In a banner week for music stocks, record labels and music publishers posted gains after Universal Music Group (UMG) signed a new licensing deal with Spotify and Amazon announced further price increases for its music streaming service.
UMG gained 11.2% to 26.94 euros ($27.91) after the company announced it renewed its licensing deal with Spotify for its record labels and music publishing. According to the company, the agreement will allow for “new paid subscription tiers,” such as Spotify’s anticipated high-priced superfan offering, and bundling of music and non-music content. UMG also got a boost from news that Amazon is raising prices on its Amazon Music Unlimited on-demand service in the U.S., U.K. and Canada. After the week’s gain, UMG had recovered nearly all of the 24% decline it suffered after its second-quarter earnings results showed lower-than-expected streaming growth.
Morgan Stanley analysts called it “an important and positive week” for investors in companies that operate in the music streaming space. Warner Music Group (WMG) rose 6.7% to $31.80 as investors likely assumed the company will follow UMG and negotiate a mutually beneficial licensing deal with Spotify later this year. Both Believe and Reservoir Media rose 2%.
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Spotify rose another 7.5% to a new record closing price of $548.55 after multiple analysts raised their price targets and the streaming giant emerged victorious in a U.S. court case over a tactic employed to lower its royalty obligations. The streaming company’s stock reached as high as $560.36 on Friday (Jan. 31), valuing the company’s market capitalization at approximately $111 billion. More analysts hiked their price targets ahead of Spotify’s earnings call on Tuesday (Feb. 4). Deutsche Bank increased its Spotify price target on Monday to $550 from $535, while Citi raised it to $540 from $500.
Music stocks have produced strong gains just one month into the new year. This week, the 20-company Billboard Global Music Index (BGMI) rose 6.4% to a record 2,447.97. Just two of the index’s 20 stocks lost ground while one was unchanged and 17 posted gains. The index’s third-straight weekly gain was the best of the year and the best single-week performance since the BGMI gained 6.8% in the week ended July 21, 2023. Just 31 days into 2025, the index is up 15.2% and is outpacing major indexes such as the Nasdaq composite (up 1.6%), S&P 500 (up 2.7%) and FTSE 100 (up 6.1%).
Aside from Spotify, other streaming companies posted large gains. LiveOne, the week’s greatest gainer, jumped 20.8% to $1.45 after CEO Robert Ellin announced — from President Trump’s The Mar-a-Lago Club — that LiveOne had surpassed 700,000 Tesla users, half of which are free, ad-supported users. Chinese music streaming company Cloud Music also improved, with its stock up 8.4% to 112.20 HKD ($14.40), after the company announced it had reached a “preliminary” agreement with K-pop company SM Entertainment to keep the K-pop company’s catalog at the platform. Paris-based Deezer rose 9.6% to 1.26 euros ($1.31). Abu Dhabi-based Anghami improved 4.2% to $0.75.
SiriusXM rose 9.3% to $24.01 after the company’s fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday (Jan. 30) showed a drop in revenue and subscribers but gross margins and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EDITDA) that were in line with guidance. For full-year 2025, SiriusXM expects slight declines in both revenue and adjusted EBITDA but an increase in free cash flow to $1.15 billion from $1.02 billion in 2024. Ahead of the company’s earnings, Deutsche Bank lowered its price target to $25 from $28.
Sphere Entertainment Co. shares rose 8.5% to $46.60, with Guggenheim raising the company’s price target to $69 from $64 and maintaining its “buy” rating. Sister company MSG Entertainment, which will announce earnings on Thursday (Feb. 6), rose just 0.1% to $36.34.
iHeartMedia had the week’s largest decline, dropping 8.3% to $2.22, after posting gains in previous weeks. iHeartMedia shares are up 12.1% year to date.