2025 Grammys Predictions: The Big Four Categories

We’re likely to see several milestone achievements when the 67th annual Grammy Awards nominations are unveiled on Friday Nov. 8.

If Taylor Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department is nominated for album of the year, she’ll break out of a tie with Barbra Streisand and stand alone as the woman with the most nods in this category.

If Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter is nominated in that same category, she’ll become the Black artist with the most album of the year nods as a lead artist. She’s currently tied for that distinction with Kanye West and Kendrick Lamar.

If Lamar’s “Not Like Us” is nominated for record and/or song of the year, he’ll tie Jay-Z for the most nods in those categories by a rapper.

If both Chappell Roan and Sabrina Carpenter are nominated in each of the Big Four categories – album, record and song of the year plus best new artist – this will be only the third time in Grammy history that two artists have achieved that feat in the same year. Billie Eilish and Lizzo both did it five years ago. Olivia Rodrigo and FINNEAS both did it three years ago.

Let’s took a closer look at the likely nominees in each of the Big Four categories. We’ll discuss top candidates in each of the races and then reveal our eight picks. (For the second year in a row, there will be eight nominees in each of these categories.)

While Beyoncé’s album hasn’t sustained its popularity as well as some of its rivals – it ranked No. 190 on the Billboard 200 on Oct. 15 as nominations-round voting closed – it’s hard to see how it can miss out on a nomination, especially after husband Jay-Z called out Grammy voters for never giving Beyoncé their top award right on the Grammy stage in February. Cowboy Carter led to a heightened appreciation for Black artists’ long-underrecognized role in the development of country music, and likely paved the way for the success of Shaboozey’s megahit “A Bar Song (Tipsy).” This would be Bey’s fifth album to be nominated in this category and her fourth in a row.

Swift’s album topped the Billboard 200 for 15 weeks, longer than any other album this year – and longer than any of her previous albums. Her cultural dominance over the past two years likely stems more from the unprecedented success of The Eras Tour than it does from any particular album. Still, it’s hard to see Tortured Poets not being nominated. This would be Swift’s seventh album of the year nod, and Poets would be her fourth consecutive studio album of new material to be nominated.

Eilish’s first two studio albums were both nominated for this award – her debut won it five years ago, follow-up Happier Than Ever was nominated two years later. Hit Me Hard and Soft is likely to make her 3 for 3. It was her first album to spawn two top five hits on the Billboard Hot 100, while Eilish demonstrated her star power by winning a second Oscar for best original song in March, and performing on a globally-televised program which wrapped the 2024 Summer Olympics in August.

Chappell Roan’s first full-length album, The Rise & Fall of a Midwest Princess, also seems like a sure thing. The album was released one week after the start of the eligibility year (Sept. 16, 2023 – Aug. 30, 2024) and has slowly built into blockbuster status. The industry loves a good artist development story, and this one is hard to beat.

Sabrina Carpenter’s sixth studio album, Short n’ Sweet, is also a solid bet. The album has logged four weeks atop the Billboard 200 and includes three singles that have made the top three on the Billboard 200. This represents a different kind of artist development story – someone who was on the cusp of stardom for nearly a decade before really exploding in the past year.

Charli XCX’s Brat is one of the year’s most critically lauded albums and one of the most well-known, especially since Charli tweeted “kamala IS brat” and became part of the year’s top overall story – the presidential election.

Ariana Grande’s Eternal Sunshine also has a good shot. The album topped the Billboard 200 for two weeks and spawned two No. 1 singles on the Hot 100. Thank U, Next, her only previous album to spawn two No. 1 singles, was nominated in this category five years ago. The only possible hitch: The many hit albums by women artists which have exploded since Grande’s album was released back in March may overshadow it.

If Beyoncé is nominated, it would be odd if Post Malone’s F-1 Trillion was not. Many have praised Post’s willing immersion into the country music scene, something Bey did not do in the same way, as the ideal way for a genre outsider to approach a genre. Post has been nominated twice before in this category, with Beerbongs & Bentleys and Hollywood’s Bleeding.

If Bey and Post both make the finals, there will be two nominees by pop artists performing country music. Nashville insiders will want to see at least one nominee by a core country artist. Top contenders there include Chris Stapleton’s Higher, Lainey Wilson’s Whirlwind and Kacey Musgraves’ Deeper Well. Stapleton and Musgraves have each been nominated in this category once in the past; Musgraves has won (for Golden Hour in 2019). If Stapleton is nominated again, he’ll become the first male country solo artist to land two nominations in this category.

Usher could be nominated for his ninth studio album, Coming Home. The R&B star headlined the Super Bowl halftime show in February and scored his biggest crossover hit in nearly a decade with “Good Good,” a collab with Summer Walker and 21 Savage. Two of the artists who performed at the 2022 halftime show, Mary J. Blige and Kendrick Lamar, wound up with album of the year nods that year. This would be Usher’s second nod in this category. He was nominated for his 2004 blockbuster Confessions.

The Recording Academy added 2,000 new voting members this year (bringing the total number of voting members to 13,000). As has been the case for the past several years, the focus was on adding more women, people of color and people under 40. This could boost the chances of not only Usher’s album, but also Future & Metro Boomin’s We Don’t Trust You, their first of two Billboard 200-topping collaborations; 21 Savage’s Billboard 200-topping American Dream; and Tyla’s Tyla, among others. Tyla’s “Water” won the inaugural Grammy presented for best African music performance in February. The South African singer won two BET Awards on June 30 — best new artist and best international act.

The Rolling Stones were nominated in this category for 1978’s Some Girls. They’re in the conversation this year with Hackney Diamonds, which was produced by Andrew Watt, who won producer of the year (non-classical) four years ago.

Zach Bryan’s The Great American Bar Scene would have a good chance at a nomination here, but Bryan didn’t enter his music in the Grammy process this year. That’s also why his “Pink Skies” is missing from the record and song of the year forecasts.

Our Fearless Forecast

Beyoncé, Cowboy Carter

Sabrina Carpenter, Short n’ Sweet

Charli XCX, Brat

Billie Eilish, Hit Me Hard and Soft

Ariana Grande, Eternal Sunshine

Post Malone, F-1 Trillion

Chappell Roan, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess

Taylor Swift, The Tortured Poets Department

Beyoncé could be headed for her ninth nomination in this category with “Texas Hold ‘Em,” which would extend her record for the most nods in the history of the category. (She surpassed the former record-holder, traditional pop GOAT Frank Sinatra, two years ago.) Don’t tell Jay-Z, but Bey has never won in this category either — the fact that that 0-fer isn’t nearly as much of a point of contention as her album of the year shutout is a sign of how the latter award has become the most coveted Grammy. (Fun Fact: “Texas Hold ’Em” wouldn’t be the first poker-themed hit to land a record of the year nod; Kenny Rogers’ “The Gambler” was nominated at the awards in 1980.)

Bruno Mars and Lady Gaga could be headed for their seventh and fourth nominations in this category, respectively, with the plush “Die With a Smile.” A nod here would put Mars in a tie with Sinatra for second place on the list of artists with the most nominations in the category. (And Gaga could use a little good news after the drubbing her latest film, Joker: Folie à Deux, took.)

Swift and Malone could be headed for their sixth and fourth nominations in the category, respectively, with “Fortnight,” which won video of the year at the MTV VMAs on Sept. 11. But it doesn’t have to be nominated in this category. Three previous Swift album of the year nominees – Red, Folklore and Evermore – weren’t represented in the record of the year nominations.

Eilish could be headed for her fifth nomination in the category with “Birds of a Feather,” which was released in July and quickly eclipsed her previous release “Lunch,” which had seemed likely to be nominated. Eilish would become the first artist in Grammy history to amass five record of the year nods before turning 23. She will reach that birthday on Dec. 18.

Lamar and SZA could each be headed for their fourth nods in the category with “Not Like Us” and “Saturn,” respectively. “Not Like Us” has transcended its origins in the year’s most bitter pop feud. Even if someone didn’t know the backstory, it’s simply an undeniable smash, with a sick beat. And “Saturn” is a gorgeous single.

Lamar could have a second record of the year nomination this year with Future and Metro Boomin’s “Like That,” on which he was featured. The last artist to receive two record the year nods in the same year was Beyoncé four years ago, for her own “Black Parade” and as a featured artist on Megan Thee Stallion’s “Savage.”

Post Malone could also have two record of the year nods – or he could wind up with none. The Post/Morgan Wallen collab “I Had Some Help” was Billboard’s Song of the Summer. It’s a catchy record, but Grammy voters sometimes steer clear of super-commercial works like this. Post has amassed 10 Grammy nominations over the years (though oddly no wins), but Wallen has yet to receive a Grammy nomination.

Ariana Grande could be headed for her second nod in the category with “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love).” She was previously nominated for the Rodgers & Hammerstein-interpolating “7 Rings.”

Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” headed the Hot 100 for 15 weeks, longer than any other single this year. Like the Lil Nas X/Billy Ray Cyrus collab “Old Town Road,” which was nominated in this category five years ago, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” blends country and R&B/hip-hop elements.

Hozier’s impeccably-produced “Too Sweet” became his first No. 1 hit on the Hot 100. Now it may become his first record of the year nominee. Hozier is vying to become the fourth Irish artist to be nominated in this category, following Gilbert O’Sullivan, U2 and Sinéad O’Connor. Hozier’s 2014 hit “Take Me to Church” was nominated for song of the year.

This would be the first nomination in this category for Shaboozey and Hozier, as it would be for such other strong contenders as Benson Boone (whose “Beautiful Things” resembles Eilish’s “Happier Than Ever” in its build from a soft opening to a rock-edged finish), Carpenter (“Espresso), Roan (“Good Luck, Babe!), Tommy Richman (“Million Dollar Baby”) and Charli XCX (“360”).

The original studio version of Teddy Swims’ “Lose Control” was released in the previous eligibility year and is thus not eligible, but a live version, subtitled “The Village Sessions,” is eligible. Unfortunately for Swims, live and alternative versions are rarely nominated in this category. That could also work to the detriment of Muni Long’s “Made for Me (Live on BET).”

Our Fearless Forecast

Beyoncé, “Texas Hold ’Em” 

Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso”

Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather”

Hozier, “Too Sweet”

Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile”

Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”

Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!”

Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”

Swift has received seven nominations in this category, more than anyone else in Grammy history, though she has yet to win. (As with Beyoncé in record of the year, it’s odd that the person with the most nominations in the category has never won.) Swift could land her eighth nod in this category this year with “Fortnight,” which she cowrote with Jack Antonoff (it would be his fifth nod in the category) and Post Malone (it would be his second).

Beyoncé and Mars could each be headed for their sixth nominations in this category – Bey with “Texas Hold ’Em” and Mars with “Die With a Smile.” For those keeping score, that would put them in a tie with Paul McCartney and Lionel Richie for second place on the Grammy song of the year nominations leaderboard. All five co-writers of “Die With a Smile” are past song of the year nominees – perhaps it was a requirement for landing the gig – Lady Gaga and Dernst Emile II (D’Mile) have each been nominated three times in the category. James Fauntleroy and Andrew Watt have each been nominated once.

Eilish and Finneas could be headed for their fifth nominations in the category for “Birds of a Feather.” They have won twice, for “Bad Guy” and their Barbie ballad “What Was I Made For?”

Max Martin could be headed for his fifth nomination in the category for co-writing Ariana Grande’s “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love).” Martin was previously nominated in the category for co-writing Backstreet Boys’ “I Want It That Way,” Katy Perry’s “Roar” and Swift’s “Shake It Off” and “Blank Space.” If this song is nominated, the Swedish hitmaker would become the first songwriter who hails from somewhere other than America or England to amass five nods in this category.

Carpenter’s camp entered “Please Please Please” in this category rather than “Espresso.” This would be the fifth nomination in this category for co-writer Antonoff, who could have two nominations in the category. As noted, he’s also a co-writer of “Fortnight.” If both songs are nominated, this would be the second year in a row that Antonoff has doubled up in this category. Last year, he was nominated for co-writing both Swift’s “Anti-Hero” and Lana Del Rey’s “A&W.” (Unlike his top client, Swift, Antonoff has won in the category. He shared the award in 2013 for cowriting “We Are Young” by his trio fun., featuring Janelle Monáe.)

As in record of the year, Lamar and SZA could each be headed for their fourth nominations in the category with “Not Like Us” and “Saturn,” respectively.

Daniel Nigro has two strong songs in contention – Roan’s can’t-miss “Good Luck, Babe!” (which he co-wrote with Roan and Justin Tranter) and Olivia Rodrigo’s “Obsessed” (which he co-wrote with Rodrigo and Annie Clark – a.k.a. St. Vincent). Nigro and Rodrigo have been nominated twice in this category, for “drivers license” and “vampire.” Tranter was nominated once, for co-writing Julia Michaels’ “Issues.”

Louis Bell could be headed for his third nomination in the category for co-writing “I Had Some Help.” Hozier could be headed for his second for co-writing “Too Sweet.” Boone could be headed for his first for co-writing “Beautiful Things.”

Jelly Roll’s “I Am Not Okay” has a positive message about the importance of greater openness about mental health and self-care issues. It could appeal to some of the same voters who delivered a song of the year nomination to “1-800-273-8255,” about suicide prevention, seven years ago. Jelly Roll sang “I Am Not Okay” over the In Memoriam spot on the Primetime Emmys.

Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” is eligible here, though some voters may nick it in this category for leaning heavily on an earlier hit. The song interpolates J-Kwon’s 2004 single “Tipsy.”

Musgraves is a contender for “Deeper Well,” which she co-wrote with Ian Fitzchuk and Daniel Tashian. Their “camera roll” was nominated for best country song three years ago.

Our Fearless Forecast

“Beautiful Things,” Evan Blair, Benson Boone, Jackson Lafrantz Larsen

“Birds of a Feather,” Billie Eilish, Finneas O’Connell

“Die With a Smile,” James Fauntleroy, Lady Gaga, Dernst Emile II, Bruno Mars, Andrew Watt

“Fortnight,” Jack Antonoff, Post Malone, Taylor Swift

“Good Luck, Babe!,” Chappell Roan, Daniel Nigro, Justin Tranter

“Not Like Us,” Kendrick Lamar

“Please Please Please,” Amy Allen, Jack Antonoff, Sabrina Carpenter

“Texas Hold ’Em,” Brian Bates, Beyoncé, Elizabeth Lowell Boland, Megan Bülow, Nate Ferraro, Raphael Saadiq

The last seven winners in this category – Alessia Cara, Dua Lipa, Eilish, Megan Thee Stallion, Rodrigo, Samara Joy and Victoria Monét – have been women solo artists. This tied the record established in 1997-2003, when the winners were LeAnn Rimes, Paula Cole, Lauryn Hill, Christina Aguilera, Shelby Lynne, Alicia Keys and Norah Jones. Since Roan and Carpenter are widely seen as this year’s front-runners in this category, a new record will likely be set in February.

Several key contenders won new artist prizes at other top award shows. RAYE won best new artist at the Brit Awards on March 2, while The Last Dinner Party won their rising star award. Megan Moroney won new female artist of the year at the ACM Awards on May 16. Roan won best new artist at the MTV VMAs on Sept. 11. The Red Clay Strays won best emerging act of the year at the Americana Honors & Awards on Sept. 18. Sexxy Red won best breakthrough artist at the BET Hip Hop Awards on Oct. 15.

RAYE hasn’t fully broken through in the U.S. yet, but she may have made enough of an impact to be nominated here. Eleven past winners of the Brits’ new artist prize have at least been nominated for best new artist at the Grammys – The Human League (1982), Frankie Goes to Hollywood (1985), Lisa Stansfield (1990), Keane (2005), Duffy (2009), Ed Sheeran (2012), Bastille (2014), Sam Smith (2015), Dua Lipa (2018), Arlo Parks (2021) and Wet Leg (2023).

Though the original version of Swims’ “Lose Control” isn’t eligible for record of the year, he is eligible here. (The rules in this category are more elastic.) He is a strong candidate thanks both to that Hot 100-topping hit and its hit follow-up, “The Door.”

Richman’s first studio album, Coyote, was released after the close of the eligibility year. He made the eligibility list anyway because he had met the minimum requirement of five singles or tracks. One of them was the No. 2 Hot 100 smash “Million Dollar Baby.”

The Hanseroth Twins – Phil and Tim – have a good shot at a nomination. They have amassed 10 Grammy nominations, including three wins – best American roots song for co-writing Brandi Carlile’s “The Joke,” best country song for co-writing Tanya Tucker’s “Bring My Flowers Now” and best rock song for co-writing Carlile’s “Broken Horses.” They are eligible here because this was determined to be the year they achieved prominence as artists. They wouldn’t be the first best new artist nominees who had previous nominations for behind-the-scenes work. Monét, who won best new artist in February, had three previous nominations. FINNEAS, who was nominated in this category three years ago, had nine previous nominations (including eight wins).

Blackpink has yet to receive a Grammy nomination, but that group’s LISA could be headed for a best new artist nomination. She would be the first K-pop artist to be nominated in this category.

Shaboozey is almost certain to be nominated here. Four other country-leaning artists also have a shot – Dasha, whose “Austin” reached No. 3 on Hot Country Songs and No. 18 on the Hot 100; HARDY and Cody Johnson, each of whom have received two new artist of the year nods at the CMA Awards; and Brittney Spencer, who (like Shaboozey) is featured on Cowboy Carter.

One fun note: Two of the leading candidates, Boone and Carpenter, share a surname with past winners in this category. Debby Boone won in 1978. Karen and Richard Carpenter won in 1971. Alas, there is no previous winner named Roan.

Our Fearless Forecast

Benson Boone

Sabrina Carpenter

Megan Moroney

RAYE

Chappell Roan

Sexxy Red

Shaboozey

Teddy Swims

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