Will Morgan Wallen Be That ‘Somebody’ to Stop Shaboozey’s Reign Atop the Hot 100?
Written by djfrosty on October 23, 2024
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Nov. 2, we look at our potential first new No. 1 in months, as a pair of big new releases compete with Shaboozey’s 15-week champ to claim the top spot.
Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): The song to beat on the Hot 100 for the last three-plus months has been Shaboozey’s hip-hop-assisted country anthem, which spends its 15th week in pole position on this week’s chart (dated Oct. 26). With one more week on top, it would match the 16-week run of Morgan Wallen’s “Last Night” as the longest-reigning Hot 100 No. 1 of the 2020s, while also moving into a four-way tie with “Last Night,” Mariah Carey and Boyz II Men’s “One Sweet Day” and Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee’s Justin Bieber-featuring “Despacito” for the second-longest-lasting No. 1 in the chart’s complete history.
The song, of course, remains a top performer across the Hot 100 component charts, as it tops Radio Songs, Streaming Songs and Digital Song Sales this week – its third time tripling up on the three listings. It is beginning to slide in totals, however, slipping 2% in radio airplay audience impressions, 6% in official streams and 8% in digital song sales, according to Luminate – meaning that its hold on the top spot is increasingly vulnerable, should a really big new song come along to challenge for the throne. (Meanwhile, a second single, “Highway,” from the singer-songwriter’s album Where I’ve Been, Isn’t Where I’m Going has just been sent to radio.)
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Shaboozey isn’t laying down for anyone, though – and in fact, he made his most high-profile appearance of the season on Tuesday night, performing “A Bar Song” on TNT before the NBA season officially tipped off with Knicks-Celtics.
Morgan Wallen, “Love Somebody” (Big Loud/Mercury/Republic): It would almost be poetic if the song that prevented – or at least delayed – Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song” from tying the 16-week mark of “Last Night” was actually by Morgan Wallen himself. Wallen should have a chance to go for the block next week following the Friday (Oct. 18) release of his new single “Love Somebody” — his follow-up to the top 10 hit “Lies Lies Lies” — which he extensively teased on TikTok and through live performances, and has an uptempo energy more reminiscent of his recent Hot 100-topping Post Malone teamup “I Had Some Help.”
The song is off to a great start both on streaming — where it’s been No. 1 on Apple Music’s real time chart essentially since its release day, and debuted at No. 1 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA listing (though it’s since slipped to No. 6 there) — and in sales, as it’s been in the top two on iTunes for most of the tracking week. It’s also off to a hot start on radio, with 11.5 million in all-format airplay audience in its first four days (Oct. 18-21), including 10.2 million from reporters to the Country Airplay chart, where it will challenge for an extremely rare debut in the top 10. (He’d be in familiar territory there, however, as both “Lies” and “Help” are currently residing in the top 10.)
Will it be enough to knock off “A Bar Song”? It could be a close race, coming down to the final days – so we’ll see if Wallen and his team have any aces up their sleeve to try to protect their “Last Night” mark. (A Thursday Night Football appearance on Amazon Prime, perhaps?)
ROSÉ & Bruno Mars, “APT.” (Atlantic): A high-profile Bruno Mars pop team-up gets off to a modestly successful start before growing throughout the week and ending up an unexpected challenger for a debut in the Hot 100’s top tier. Sound familiar? Well, just a couple months ago, it was the early story for “Die With a Smile,” Mars’ teamup with fellow pop megastar Lady Gaga, which ultimately debuted at No. 3 on the Hot 100 and has spent the first nine weeks of its chart run in the top 10. Now, it’s déjà vu all over again for Mars – though this time with a duet partner with much less established chart history than Gaga.
“APT.,” Mars’ much-promoted collab with BLACKPINK solo star ROSÉ, debuted at No. 11 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart for Friday (Oct. 18) — but by Sunday, it had bounded to No. 1, where it has stayed since. (The song has also been growing on Apple Music, but has yet to crack the real-time chart’s top 50 as of posting.) The song is also selling well, currently residing at No. 3 on iTunes, and is aiming to debut on the Pop Airplay chart after its first week of tracking – which would make it ROSÉ’s first entry on the chart as a soloist. (Her solo history on the Hot 100 has also been relatively muted, with her “On the Ground” peaking at No. 70 – though she’s of course reached the chart’s top 20 as a member of BLACKPINK.)
The song might have started a little too slow to be a real contender for No. 1 next week in its debut – but it could be a second top 10 hit for Mars this year, and if it keeps growing like this, we might still be talking about it in future Contenders columns.