Labels, Publishers and Streamers Lead Music Stocks’ Rebound After Tumultuous Prior Week
Written by djfrosty on September 13, 2024
Live Nation, Warner Music Group and Spotify helped lead a music stocks rebound this week as global markets recovered from a disastrous prior week.
The Billboard Global Music Index gained 3.2% to 1,800.75 to retake nearly two-thirds of the previous week’s losses. Last week, just three of the index’s 20 stocks were gainers. This week, 11 stocks finished in positive territory while nine lost value. The seven multi-sector companies — recorded music, publishing and agencies — had an average gain of 2.3%. Six streaming companies had an average gain of 2.6%.
Major indexes also posted gains after last week’s downturn. In the United States, the Nasdaq jumped 6.0% to 17,683.98 and the S&P 500 climbed 4.0% to 5,626.02. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 rose 1.1% to 8,273.09. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index improved 1.2% to 2,575.41. China’s Shanghai Composite Index was an exception, dropping 2.2% to 2,704.09, its lowest close since Feb. 5, 2024.
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Concert promoter Live Nation jumped 6.5% to $98.82 on Friday, its best closing price since $101.40 on May 22. CEO Michael Rapino gave investors a convincing narrative about Live Nation’s past, present and future at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia & Technology Conference on Tuesday (Sept. 10). Speaking about the potential for growth outside of the U.S., Rapino talked about taking the model used in Austin, where it built the Moody Center (in partnership with Oak View Group) and is getting “25-plus-percent return on capital.”
While the U.S. is filled with arenas because of basketball’s popularity, soccer-dominant Europe and South America don’t have the same infrastructure, Rapino explained. Growing a presence in those areas means building the venues, which provides better profits than being a venue operator. And it can be done more affordably than the cost of many arenas in the U.S. “We’re not building a billion-dollar Chase Center [the home of the Golden State Warriors basketball team in San Francisco],” Rapino said. “We’re building a $300 million-$400 million music venue, and we can get a great return on capital and expand the market. So that’s our greatest opportunity.”
After SiriusXM merged with Liberty Media’s tracking stock, Liberty SiriusXM, the new stock — also trading under the SIRI ticket — finished closed at $24.51, down 10.2%, after taking into account a 1-for-10 stock split. SiriusXM initiated post-merger trading at $25.25 and rose 2.6% on Tuesday before reaching a high of $29.05 on Wednesday. The company said the merger of SiriusXM and Liberty SiriusXM stocks was done to simplify the capital structure and support the company’s future growth.
In its first press release following the merger with Liberty SiriusXM tracking stock, SiriusXM provided updated free cash flow guidance of $1 billion for 2024, a $200 million drop from the guidance provided on Aug. 1. The $200 million change reflects about $70 million of closing costs and incremental interest and about $130 million related to “historical, year-to-date outflows at Liberty SiriusXM Holdings Inc. prior to the closing of the transaction.” The company left unchanged its guidance for revenue ($8.75 billion) and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization ($2.7 billion).
Spotify gained 4.7% to $338.01, erasing most of its 5.9% loss two weeks prior. On Thursday, Guggenheim increased its estimate for fourth quarter monthly average users and average revenue per user and raised its third quarter gross margin estimate. Analysts spoke with a publishing executive who had positive things to say about Spotify’s audiobook offering and its positive impact on the publishing business. Guggenheim maintained its “buy” rating and $420 price target.
Multi-sector companies performed especially well this week. Warner Music Group gained 5.1% to $29.02 after Tigress Financial cut its price target to $44 from $52 on Thursday but retained a “buy” rating on the stock. Reservoir Media rose 5.3% to $7.72. Universal Music Group improved 2.9% to 23.60 euros ($26.17). Most K-pop stocks rebounded after a rough week. Although HYBE lost 1.0%, YG Entertainment gained 4.9%,SM Entertainment improved 3.2% and JYP Entertainment rose 1.7%.
A trio of streaming companies were among the week’s worst performers. China’s Cloud Music fell 4.7% to 91.95 HKD ($11.79). China’s top music streamer, Tencent Music Entertainment, fell 6.7% to $9.52. Abu Dhabi-based Anghami dropped 7.8% to $0.83.