Is Chappell Roan About to Catch Up to Taylor Swift on the Billboard 200?

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Aug. 24, Taylor Swift’s incumbent Tortured Poets Department is mostly free from new challengers – but one that’s been rising for months could finally start to pose a real threat.  

Chappell Roan, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess (KRA/Amusement/Island/Republic): Against all odds, Chappellmania just continues to keep spreading, as seemingly every week another festival performance or other big cultural moment keeps Roan a rising tide. Last week, it was a historically massive Lollapalooza performance in luchador gear, this week, it’s a similarly gargantuan Outside Lands gig as a majorette – with a quasi-viral moment during her “Hot to Go” performance where she chastised the VIP section for not singing along.

That hit is one of seven Chappell Roan songs scaling the Billboard Hot 100 (dated Aug. 17) this week – with “My Kink Is Karma” becoming the sixth cut from her breakthrough debut The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess to join the party. Meanwhile, Midwest Princess rises to a new peak of No. 3 on the Billboard 200, climbing from No. 4 the previous week (and No. 5 the week before). With Ye & Ty Dolla $ign’s Vultures 2 (No. 2 on the chart this week) all but sure to drop some in its second week of release, and no major debuts expected to impact the chart’s top five, it seems likely Midwest Princess is about to make it four weeks in a row.

Could it have the No. 1 spot in its sights? To reach that peak, of course, it will have to depose Taylor Swift’s 14-week No. 1 The Tortured Poets Department. On last week’s Billboard 200, Swift’s blockbuster was still way ahead of Roan’s debut – 142,000 units to 64,000 – but that Poets number was boosted by a wide variety of just-released and reissued digital and physical editions of the album that helped account for a 606% gain in sales. The week before, Poets secured the No. 1 with 71,000 units – which could be much more matchable for Midwest Princess, should it continue to gain steadily and should Swift not release or re-release more exclusive editions of her latest. (Roan’s album has been discounted to $6.99 in the iTunes store, which may also help spur some extra sales.) 

In any event, if Roan doesn’t seize the top prize next week, she may find the race more crowded in the charts to come. It’s been a relatively fallow period for major new releases compared to earlier in the year, but this Friday, veteran hitmaker Post Malone releases his long-anticipated (and already multi-hit-spawning) country pivot album F1-Trillion — and a week later, newly minted pop superstar Sabrina Carpenter will look to reclaim the late summer with the release of her new album Short n’ Sweet. But then again, maybe Roan will play it patiently and wait for her moment – which could come around the one-year anniversary of Midwest Princess in September, as both a new anniversary edition and a new Target color variant of the album were recently made available for preorder, with the official release date listed as Sept. 20.  

Taylor Swift, The Tortured Poets Department (Republic): Roan’s and Swift’s albums have all but pulled even in terms of their streaming performances – so once again, it’s all down to sales for Tortured Poets, which just held off Vultures 2 to claim its 14th week at No. 1. So far this tracking week, Swift does not appear to have released any new variants for the album, so if she wants to grab a 15th week at No. 1 – leaving her just four shy of Morgan Wallen’s decade-best 19-week mark, set with 2023’s One Thing at a Time – she’ll either need to work on some last-minute sales-boosters, or simply hope that Roan’s set isn’t quite ready to catch up to hers yet. 

IN THE MIX 

Latto, Sugar Honey Iced Tea (Streamcut/RCA): The latest from Billboard July cover star Latto is a 17-track affair – 21 if you count a “bonus disc” featuring multiple versions of previous hit singles “Put It on Da Floor” and “Sunday Service” — with guest features from recognizable names like Megan Thee Stallion, Ciara and Teezo Touchdown. The set’s performance might be hindered by its lack of physical release – and the lack of a current hit as established as those bonus tracks – but it should still stream well and be helped by a deluxe edition (featuring the new bonus cut “Chicken Grease”) released on Tuesday. 

Polo G, Hood Poet (Columbia): It wasn’t long ago that Polo G was a regular chart-topper, besting both the Billboard 200 (with third album Hall of Fame) and the Hot 100 (with runaway hit “Rapstar”) in 2021. The hits have dried up some for the Chicago rapper in the years since, but Hall of Fame follow-up Hood Poet dropped last Friday, and should also stream well – with a star-studded tracklist that includes cameos from hitmakers Lil Durk, GloRilla, The Kid LAROI and many more. 

Beabadoobee, This Is How Tomorrow Moves (Dirty Hit): The alt-rock singer-songwriter born Beatrice Laus has long seemed on the verge of a major commercial breakthrough, with a devoted cult fanbase and viral streaming hits like “The Perfect Pair” and “Glue Song.” Beabadoobee seems sure to at least get her highest-charting album on the Billboard 200 with third LP This Is How Tomorrow Moves – having previously reached No. 189 with 2020’s Fake It Flowers — with the new set being made available on cassette, standard and signed CD, and six different vinyl variants. 

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