Eminem performs onstage at Live from Detroit: The Concert at Michigan Central” at Michigan Central Station on June 6, 2024 in Detroit, Michigan.
Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images
Outside of perhaps only video of the year, no award at the MTV Video Music Awards is more revered — nor its announcement more anticipated — than the Video Vanguard.
The lifetime achievement award, which dates back to the first-ever VMAs in 1984 and has been given out annually since (with occasional gaps, most recently for the pandemic-stricken first two years of the 2020s), is given to reward “outstanding contributions” and “profound impact” on music videos and popular culture. It’s named after Michael Jackson, arguably the most outstanding artist in music video history, and has been handed out over the decades to video luminaries ranging from David Bowie and The Rolling Stones to Beyoncé and Missy Elliott. Most recently, the Video Vanguard has been awarded to rap icon Nicki Minaj (2022) and global pop superstar Shakira (2023).
Who will be the 2024 recipient? While MTV has already revealed the nominations for most of the competitive categories in this year’s VMAs, they have not yet divulged the Video Vanguard honoree — though the announcement is expected to come some time this week. Before that, we at Billboard decided to take a crack at predicting the award’s recipient this year. We started with some of the biggest and most legendary artists yet to receive the award, and filtered our list through factors like contemporary relevance, promotional considerations and the simple likelihood of the artist being willing to show up to deliver a speech and career-spanning medley performance, as has been customary of honorees for most of the past decade.
Here are our eight best guesses for this year’s Video Vanguard recipient, ranked (roughly) from least to most likely.
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Drake
Drake hasn’t had much to do with the Video Music Awards in recent years — his last big moment at the awards came in 2016, when he presented the Video Vanguard to frequent collaborator (and rumored ex) Rihanna. Still, Drake’s history as a music video icon over the last 15 years is undeniable — and after all the negative momentum he’s built from coming out on the losing end of the biggest hip-hop beef of the decade, perhaps the longtime master of changing the conversation would jump at the chance to remind the pop world just what a legendary hitmaker he really is.
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Post Malone
Post Malone is on the newer side for this category, and his success hasn’t necessarily been all that tied to his music videos — as evidenced by the only Video Music Award he’s ever won being in a song-based category (song of the year for “Rockstar” in 2018). Nonetheless, he’s been a reliable VMAs performer, has a decade’s worth of hits to his credit, and will have a new album to promote: one that’s already generated one of the biggest smashes of his career in the Hot 100-topping Morgan Wallen teamup “I Had Some Help.”
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Bruno Mars
Bruno Mars is a four-time VMA winner with a number of memorable videos over the course of his nearly-15-year run as a preeminent pop hitmaker — not to mention a rep as being one of the best performers of his era. The only problem? Bruno takes a long time in between promotional cycles, and he’s been fairly absent from pop culture altogether in the three years following the release of his and Anderson .Paak’s successful 2021 An Evening With Silk Sonic teamup. But rumor has it he may have a big new Lady Gaga collab on the way, so perhaps his return to the limelight isn’t as far away as we think.
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The Weeknd
Speaking of expected returns: The Weeknd has begun to tease a new project, expected to be the final installment in a trilogy kicked off earlier in the decade with his After Hours and Dawn FM sets. The Weeknd has both the hits and the identifiable video presence to justify receiving the award — not to mention a clear lifelong reverence for its namesake superstar — so it might just be a question of if he’s ready to start rolling out his next era in time for the VMAs next month.
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Miley Cyrus
It’s been a decade since Miley’s run as the pop star at the center of the VMAs — delivering the show’s most controversial performance of the decade alongside Robin Thicke in 2013, winning video of the year for “Wrecking Ball” in 2014 and hosting the awards herself in 2015 — and last year, she returned with the biggest pop hit of her career in “Flowers.” It feels like only a matter of time until Cyrus wins it, but outside of a “Flowers” victory lap at this year’s Grammys, she’s mostly kept away from public performances lately, so it’s unclear if she’d be up for taking her turn in 2024.
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Usher
Usher has practically been on the flowers-receiving circuit in 2024, not only getting the coveted halftime headlining slot for a career-spanning set at Super Bowl LVIII, but also getting the Lifetime Achievement Award at the BET Awards, along with an all-star tribute medley performance. It would only make sense for the VMAs to follow suit — Usher being one of MTV’s most reliable stars from the late ’90s to the mid ’10s — but perhaps after so much celebration of Mr. Raymond in the year’s first half, MTV will look to go a different route in September.
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Eminem
It’s kind of incredible that Eminem — one of the most consistent superstars of the last 25 years, and a 13-time winner at the VMAs (including two video of the year moonpeople) — has not yet taken home the Video Vanguard, though his presence at the show since his 2000s peak has been scattered at best. If there was ever going to be a year for him to get it, though, it’d be 2024 — when he’s not only back with a chart-topping new album, but one revisiting his early Slim Shady days when he was a VMAs regular. If anything, though, Eminem might be a victim of his own recent success here: He’s already a six-time nominee this year (mostly for his popular “Houdini” clip), so MTV might see that as enticement enough for him to attend and/or perform this year without also giving him a lifetime achievement award.
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Katy Perry
It almost makes too much sense: Katy Perry will be releasing a new album in September that appears geared up to be a return to the mega-pop that she ruled with at the turn of the 2010s — when she was one of the most unavoidable artists in the MTV galaxy, with four or five eye-popping music videos per album (including one, Teenage Dream‘s “Firework,” that took home video of the year in 2011). There could be no better stage for her to remind pop fans why they’re still rooting for her comeback than the VMAs, with a performance spanning from breakthrough hit “I Kissed a Girl” to this year’s “Woman’s World” return.