Grammys 2025 Big Four Predictions: Who Could Score a Nomination?

Will Beyoncé finally win album of the year at the 2025 Grammy Awards? Queen Bey has gone 0-4 in the category (as a lead artist), which has been a source of frustration for many in the BeyHive — and also those in her inner circle. Accepting an honorary award at the 2024 ceremony, Jay-Z confronted the issue head-on. “I don’t want to embarrass this young lady, but she has more Grammys than everyone and never won album of the year, so even by your own metrics, that doesn’t work.”

Jay-Z’s remark suggests that Bey’s fate in the category will be the most-watched moment at the 67th annual Grammys, which will be presented Feb. 2 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. Nominations will be announced Nov. 8. Here are Billboard’s best bets for nods in the top four categories.

It’s likely that solo women will take seven of the eight slots here. That’s comparable to the 2024 Grammys, where solo women took six of the eight slots and an all-woman group, boygenius, took a seventh. Jon Batiste was the only male artist to be nominated at this year’s ceremony. Chris Stapleton may have the best chance of repping men next year. Nominees for album and record of the year must have been released during the eligibility period (Sept. 16, 2023-Aug. 30, 2024).

Beyoncé, Cowboy Carter

This is Bey’s eighth solo studio album and would be her fifth to be nominated in this category following I Am…Sasha Fierce, Beyoncé, Lemonade and Renaissance. She would be the first Black artist to be nominated for a country album since Ray Charles for Modern Sounds in Country and Western Music (though none of the singles from that trailblazing 1962 album appeared on Hot Country Songs). Billboard 200 peak: No. 1 (two weeks).

Sabrina Carpenter, Short N’ Sweet

Carpenter’s sixth studio album is due Aug. 23, one week before the end of the eligibility period. The album was co-produced by Jack Antonoff and Julian Bunetta. Antonoff has received eight album of the year nods — four with Taylor Swift, two with Lana Del Rey and one each with Lorde and his own pop trio, fun. He has also won producer of the year, non-classical the last three years running.

Billie Eilish, Hit Me Hard and Soft

Eilish’s third album features 10 tracks, two songwriters (Eilish and FINNEAS), one producer (FINNEAS) and no featured artists. That may appeal to traditionalists in the Recording Academy’s voting membership who are put off by this era’s collaboration-heavy approach. Eilish won in this category five years ago for When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go? and was nominated three years ago for Happier Than Ever. Billboard 200 peak: No. 2.

Ariana Grande, Eternal Sunshine

This is Grande’s seventh studio album and would be her second to be nominated in this category. She was nominated five years ago for Thank U, Next. Swedish hit-makers Max Martin and ILYA, who were nominated as producers of Thank U, Next, are also among the producers of this album. Billboard 200 peak: No. 1 (two weeks).

Chappell Roan, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess

The singer’s debut album arrived Sept. 22, 2023, one week after the start of the eligibility period. This is vying to become the first debut album by a woman pop artist to receive an album of the year nod since Olivia Rodrigo’s SOUR in 2022. Daniel Nigro, who has been nominated twice in this category for work with Rodrigo, co-produced the album with Ryan Linvill and Mike Wise. Billboard 200 peak: No. 5.

Chris Stapleton, Higher

This is Stapleton’s fifth studio album and would be his second to be nominated in the category. Traveller was nominated nine years ago. Stapleton is vying to become the first male country solo artist to land two nominations in this category. “White Horse,” the lead single from Higher, won two Grammys in February. Higher won album of the year at the Academy of Country Music Awards on May 16. Billboard 200 peak: No. 3.

Taylor Swift, The Tortured Poets Department

This would be Swift’s seventh nod in the category, which would allow her to stand alone as the woman artist with the most album of the year nods. She currently shares that distinction with Barbra Streisand, with six nods each. Swift co-produced the album with Jack Antonoff, Aaron Dessner and Patrik Berger. Billboard 200 peak: No. 1 (12 weeks so far).

Tyla, Tyla

The South African singer’s “Water” won the inaugural Grammy presented for best African music performance. It was the lead single from her self-titled debut album, which was released during the current eligibility period. Tyla features guest appearances from stars such as Tems, Gunna, Becky G and Travis Scott. Tyla won two BET Awards on June 30 — best new artist and best international act. Billboard 200 peak: No. 24.

Within Reach: Zach Bryan, The Great American Bar Scene; Charli xcx, brat; Doja Cat, Scarlet; Future & Metro Boomin, We Don’t Trust You; Post Malone, F-1 Trillion (due Aug. 16); Kacey Musgraves, Deeper Well; 21 Savage, American Dream; Kali Uchis, Orquídeas; Usher, Coming Home; Lainey Wilson, Whirlwind (due Aug. 23).

Beyoncé already holds the record for most career nominations in this category. Her total of eight includes an early record with Destiny’s Child and collaborations with Jay-Z and Megan Thee Stallion. Will she extend her lead this year? And could two Black artists — Bey and Shaboozey — be nominated for country hits in the same year? Teddy Swims’ “Lose Control,” a No. 1 hit on the Billboard Hot 100, was entered last year and thus is ineligible.

Beyoncé, “Texas Hold ’Em”

Two years ago, Beyoncé pulled ahead of Frank Sinatra for the most nominations in this category. This would give her a record-extending ninth nod. The big question: Will it compete for best solo performance honors in pop or country? “Texas Hold ’Em” wouldn’t be the first poker-themed hit to land a record of the year nod. Kenny Rogers’ “The Gambler” was nominated at the awards in 1980. Hot 100 peak: No. 1 (two weeks).

Benson Boone, “Beautiful Things”

This song is constructed like Billie Eilish’s “Happier Than Ever,” which was nominated for record and song of the year three years ago. It starts out soft and builds in intensity to a rock-inflected finish. This was Boone’s third Hot 100 entry, but his first to climb above No. 82. Hot 100 peak: No. 2.

Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso”

Carpenter’s camp has to decide which hit to enter — “Espresso,” which topped Billboard’s staff list of The 50 Best Songs of 2024 (So Far), or “Please Please Please,” which was Carpenter’s first No. 1 on the Hot 100. The former is one of the catchiest singles of recent years; the latter, an offbeat, country-shaded follow-up. They’ll probably go with “Espresso,” but either would be a strong nominee. Hot 100 peak: No. 3.

Billie Eilish, “Lunch”

This would be Eilish’s fifth nod in this category. She won for “bad guy” and “Everything I Wanted” and was nominated for “Happier Than Ever” and “What Was I Made For?” Eilish’s brother, FINNEAS, produced all of these records. Nominations will be announced five weeks before Eilish turns 23. No one else has ever amassed five nods in this category at such a young age. Hot 100 peak: No. 5.

Ariana Grande, “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love)”

This record could give Grande a second nod in this category. She was nominated five years ago for the Rodgers & Hammerstein-interpolating “7 Rings.” Grande produced this track with Swedish pop masterminds Max Martin and ILYA, who were among the producers of “7 Rings.” Hot 100 peak: No. 1 (one week).

Hozier, “Too Sweet”

Hozier got some Grammy love nine years ago when his breakthrough smash, “Take Me to Church,” was nominated for song of the year. He came roaring back this year with this impeccably produced record. Hozier is vying to become the fourth Irish artist to be nominated for record of the year, following Gilbert O’Sullivan, U2 and Sinéad O’Connor. Hot 100 peak: No. 1 (one week).

Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”

This scathing dis track is from Lamar’s bitter and highly public feud with Drake. This would be Lamar’s fourth nod in this category following “HUMBLE.” (2018); “All the Stars,” a collaboration with SZA (2019); and “The Heart Part 5” (2023). If this is nominated, Lamar will tie Jay-Z for the most record of the year nods by a rapper. Hot 100 peak: No. 1 (two weeks).

Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!”

This song, Roan’s first Hot 100 hit, was produced by Daniel Nigro, who has been nominated in this category for his work on two Olivia Rodrigo hits. Nigro has received eight Grammy nods, all for work with Rodrigo. He won best pop vocal album as the producer of her debut album, SOUR. Hot 100 peak: No. 10.

Within Reach: Doja Cat, “Agora Hills”; Jack Harlow, “Lovin on Me”; Future, Metro Boomin & Kendrick Lamar, “Like That”; Muni Long, “Made for Me”; Post Malone featuring Morgan Wallen, “I Had Some Help”; Tommy Richman, “Million Dollar Baby”; Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”; Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone, “Fortnight”; 21 Savage, “Redrum”; SZA, “Saturn.”

Last year, five of the eight nominees for record of the year were also nominated for song of the year. The year before that, six of the 10 nominees for record of the year also received song of the year nods. This year, seven of the eight record of the year nominees could double up. Taylor Swift has amassed seven nominations in this category, more than any other songwriter, but she has yet to win. Will this finally be her year?

“Beautiful Things”
Songwriters: Benson Boone, Jack LaFrantz, Evan Blair

This song touches on themes that have long been attractive to Grammy voters — gratitude for life’s blessings and awareness of how quickly in life fortunes can change. Other philosophical songs that have been nominated here in recent years include “Live Like You Were Dying,” “Bless the Broken Road,” “7 Years” and “God’s Plan.” In addition to co-writing “Beautiful Things,” Blair produced Boone’s single.

“Espresso”
Songwriters: Sabrina Carpenter, Amy Allen, Julian Bunetta, Steph Jones

This confection may seem a little light for a song of the year nod, but the irresistible tune has been inescapable in recent months. Even Adele was caught up in the hooky line “I’m working late/’Cause I’m a singer,” praising the song during her Las Vegas residency. (And being light didn’t prevent Bruno Mars’ “That’s What I Like” from winning in 2019.) Allen was nominated for the inaugural songwriter of the year, non-classical award two years ago.

“Fortnight”
Songwriters: Taylor Swift, Post Malone, Jack Antonoff

All three writers are past nominees in this category: Swift has been nominated a record seven times, Antonoff four times and Post Malone once. Alternatively, Swift could enter “Is It Over Now? (Taylor’s Version),” which she also co-wrote with Antonoff. Both songs topped the Hot 100, for two and one weeks, respectively.

“Good Luck, Babe!”
Songwriters: Chappell Roan, Justin Tranter, Daniel Nigro

Tranter and Nigro are past nominees in this category — Tranter for co-writing Julia Michaels’ “Issues,” Nigro for co-writing Olivia Rodrigo’s “drivers license” and “Vampire.” “Good Luck, Babe!” is about a woman parting ways with a woman who is denying her true sexual orientation. The next song on the list is about a woman accepting and embracing her own.

“Lunch”
Songwriters: Billie ­Eilish, FINNEAS

The siblings have been nominated four times in this category, winning twice. If they win again, they’ll become the first three-time winners in the history of the category. They won most recently this year with “What Was I Made For?” They have another very pretty ballad (“Birds of a Feather”) that they could enter here instead, but “Lunch” feels like the more likely option.

“Not Like Us”
Songwriter: Kendrick Lamar

As with record of the year, this would be Lamar’s fourth nod in this category following “Alright” (2016), “All the Stars” (2019) and “The Heart Part 5” (2023). And, as with record of the year, if this is nominated, Lamar will tie Jay-Z for the most song of the year nods for a rapper.

“Texas Hold ’Em”
Songwriters: Beyoncé, Brian Bates, Nathan Ferraro, Raphael Saadiq, Elizabeth Lowell Boland, Megan Bülow

This would be Beyoncé’s sixth nomination in the category. That would put her in a tie with Paul McCartney and Lionel Richie for second place on the list of all-time nominees in this category. Swift leads with seven nods. Saadiq has been nominated for best R&B song five times, winning twice, but this would be his first song of the year nod.

“We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love)”
Songwriters: Ariana Grande, Max Martin, ILYA

This would be the first nomination in this category for Grande and ILYA and the fifth for Martin, following nods for Backstreet Boys’ “I Want It That Way,” Katy Perry’s “Roar” and Taylor Swift’s “Shake It Off” and “Blank Space.” Martin, a Swede, and U2, from Ireland, are the only songwriters who hail from somewhere other than America or England to amass four or more nods in this category.

Within Reach: “Agora Hills” (artist: Doja Cat); “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (Shaboozey); “Deeper Well” (Kacey Musgraves); “I Had Some Help” (Post Malone featuring Morgan Wallen); “Made for Me” (Muni Long); “Obsessed” (Olivia Rodrigo); “Pink Skies” (Zach Bryan); “Redrum” (21 Savage); “Saturn” (SZA); “Too Sweet” (Hozier).

According to the rules, “This category recognizes an artist whose eligibility-year release(s) achieved a breakthrough into the public consciousness.” Artists with previous Grammy nominations are generally not allowed, nor are artists who have previously been entered in the category three times (whether or not they were nominated). That latter rule disqualifies Tate McRae. The last seven winners in this category have been solo women, which tied the record established in 1997-2003. If another solo woman wins next year, a new record will be set.

Benson Boone

Boone, 22, is the youngest of this year’s likely best new artist nominees. He is vying to become the first male artist to win in this category since Chance the Rapper in 2017. Boone could also become the second winner in this category with that surname. Debby Boone won in 1978.

Sabrina Carpenter

Short N’ Sweet is Carpenter’s sixth studio album, so how can she be considered new? Prior to this eligibility year, she had never climbed higher than No. 48 on the Hot 100. The Grammys aren’t charts-based, but they do think in terms of “public consciousness” and achieving “prominence.” Carpenter, 25, is vying to become the second winner in this category with that surname. Karen and Richard Carpenter won in 1971.

Megan Moroney

Moroney, 26, was passed over for a best new artist nod two years ago, when “Tennessee Orange” became a top 30 hit on the Hot 100. But she has continued to build. Moroney was nominated for the Country Music Association’s new artist of the year prize last year and won the Academy of Country Music’s new female artist of the year honor (on her second try) in May. Her second album, Am I Okay?, arrived July 12.

Chappell Roan

Atlantic Records dropped Roan, born Kayleigh Rose Amstutz, following the release of a 2017 EP, School Nights. Her smash debut album was released through Island Records last September. Roan, 26, supported Olivia Rodrigo (who won in this category in 2022) on two major tours. She also opened for Vance Joy and Ben Platt, among others, and performed at Coachella in April.

Sexyy Red

The rapper, 26, reached the top 20 on the Billboard 200 with her third mixtape, In Sexyy We Trust. The tape spawned the top 20 Hot 100 hit “Get It Sexyy.” Sexyy Red was nominated in five categories, including best new artist, at the 2024 BET Awards, but was shut out.

Shaboozey

Shaboozey, 29, is at the forefront of bringing more diversity to the world of country music. His third album, Where I’ve Been, Isn’t Where I’m Going, reached No. 5 on the Billboard 200. Its smash single, “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” has made it to No. 1 on the Hot 100. Shaboozey is also featured on two tracks on Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter.

Teddy Swims

Swims’ debut studio album, I’ve Tried Everything but Therapy (Part 1), reached the top 20 on the Billboard 200. “Lose Control,” the smash single from the album, topped the Hot 100. Before becoming a headliner, Swims opened for Zac Brown Band, which won in this category in 2010, and Greta Van Fleet, which was nominated in 2019. Swims, 31, is the oldest of this year’s likely best new artist nominees.

Within Reach: The Beaches; Dasha; Djo; 4Batz; Knox; October London; Tommy Richman; Nate Smith; Brittney Spencer; Tigirlily Gold

This story will appear in the July 20, 2024, issue of Billboard.

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