Grammys 2024 Big Four Predictions: Who Could Score a Nomination?

When the nominations for the 66th annual Grammy Awards are announced Nov. 10, Taylor Swift and SZA are each likely to receive nods for album, record and song of the year. It will be a bit harder to crack the Big Four categories than it was the last two years: The Recording Academy is cutting the number of nominees in each of those categories from a bloated 10 to eight, which was the magic number from 2018 to 2020. (Before that, it was generally five.)

And this year’s eligibility period closes two weeks earlier than usual, running from Oct. 1, 2022, through Sept. 15, 2023. Following are Billboard’s best bets for who will be in contention.

In a welcome change, the academy reinstituted a baseline of involvement needed to receive a nomination in this category. Credited and featured artists, songwriters, producers, engineers, mixers and mastering engineers must have worked on at least 20% of an album’s playing time to receive a nod. This is up from no baseline the last two years, when the academy handed out nominations in this category like they were Halloween candy.

Boygenius, The Record

The trio, consisting of Phoebe Bridgers, Julien Baker and Lucy Dacus, co-produced its long-awaited debut album with Catherine Marks. Previous “supergroup” collaborations to be nominated in this category include Crosby, Stills & Nash; the all-star Trio consisting of Dolly Parton, Linda Ronstadt and Emmylou Harris; Traveling Wilburys; and The Three Tenors. Billboard 200 peak: No. 4.

Drake & 21 Savage, Her Loss

This year’s 50th anniversary of hip-hop has received yearlong coverage, which boosts the already good chance that at least one rap album will make the finals. Her Loss was up for album of the year at the BET Awards in June. This would be the third album of the year nomination as a lead or co-lead artist for Drake (following Views and Scorpion) and the first for 21 Savage. Billboard 200 peak: No. 1 (one week).

Lana Del Rey, Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd

Del Rey’s ninth studio album could yield her second nod in this category, following Norman F–king Rockwell! four years ago. Del Rey co-produced the album with Jack Antonoff, Benji, Zach Dawes, Drew Erickson and Mike Hermosa. Billboard 200 peak: No. 3.

Foo Fighters, But Here We Are

One of the Grammys’ favorite bands collaborated with one of the Grammys’ favorite producers, Greg Kurstin, a two-time winner for producer of the year, non-classical. The Foo Fighters’ 11th studio album — their first since the death of drummer Taylor Hawkins in March 2022 — could yield their third nod in this category. Billboard 200 peak: No. 8.

Olivia Rodrigo, Guts

Rodrigo’s upcoming second album could very well follow her debut, Sour, to an album of the year nod. It was produced by Dan Nigro, who also did the honors on Sour. This would be the second time Rodrigo has been nominated alongside one of her idols, Taylor Swift, in this category. Sour competed with Swift’s evermore two years ago.

SZA, SOS

This tied for album of the year at the BET Awards with Beyoncé’s Renaissance (a Grammy nominee in this category last year). SZA’s second studio album had multiple producers, including Babyface, Jeff Bhasker, Benny Blanco and Shellback. Billboard 200 peak: No. 1 (10 weeks).

Taylor Swift, Midnights

This would be Swift’s sixth nomination in this category, which would put her in a tie with Barbra Streisand for the most nods by a woman in Grammy history. Swift co-produced Midnights with Jack Antonoff, Sounwave, Jahaan Sweet and Keanu. She could make history when the Grammys are presented Feb. 4, 2024, becoming the first person to win album of the year four times. She’s currently tied with Frank Sinatra, Stevie Wonder and Paul Simon with three wins each. Billboard 200 peak: No. 1 (six weeks).

Morgan Wallen, One Thing at a Time

This would be the first country album to be nominated in this category since Kacey Musgraves’ Golden Hour five years ago (which won) and the first by a male country artist since Chris Stapleton’s Traveller eight years ago. Joey Moi, Cameron Montgomery, Charlie Handsome and Jacob Durrett co-produced the collection, which is Wallen’s third studio album. Billboard 200 peak: No. 1 (15 weeks — longer than any other album since Adele’s 2011 release, 21).

Within Reach: Luke Combs, Gettin’ Old; Miley Cyrus, Endless Summer Vacation; Jelly Roll, Whitsitt Chapel; Noah Kahan, Stick Season; Karol G, Mañana Será Bonito; Lil Baby, It’s Only Me; Metro Boomin, Heroes & Villains; Janelle Monáe, The Age of Pleasure; Paramore, This Is Why; Ed Sheeran, – (Subtract); Sam Smith, Gloria; Tanya Tucker, Sweet Western Sound; Lainey Wilson, Bell Bottom Country

Swift is still looking for her first win in this category, as are past contenders such as SZA and Rihanna. “Calm Down” by Rema & Selena Gomez, which would have been a strong contender, was released before the start of the eligibility year. Rema’s solo recording of the song was entered, but not nominated, for best global music performance last year.

Miley Cyrus, “Flowers”

Cyrus’ father, Billy Ray Cyrus, has received two record of the year nods — for “Achy Breaky Heart” and “Old Town Road,” his collaboration with Lil Nas X. The Cyruses would become just the third parent and child to each receive record of the year nods, following the Sinatras (Frank and Nancy) and the Coles (Nat “King” and Natalie). Billboard Hot 100 peak: No. 1 (eight weeks).

Luke Combs, “Fast Car”

Tracy Chapman’s original version of this song was a 1988 record of the year nominee. This would become only the second song in Grammy history to be the basis of two singles that received record of the year nods. The first was “Mack the Knife.” (Bobby Darin’s recording was the 1959 winner, while Ella Fitzgerald’s was a 1960 nominee.) Hot 100 peak: No. 2 (so far).

Lil Durk & J. Cole, “All My Life”

The melodic chorus on this hip-hop smash gives it broad-based appeal. This would be the first collaboration by two rappers to receive a nod in this category since DaBaby’s “Rockstar” (featuring Roddy Ricch) three years ago. J. Cole finally won his first Grammy (after amassing 12 nominations) four years ago for “A Lot.” Lil Durk is still looking for his first win. Hot 100 peak: No. 2.

PinkPantheress & Ice Spice, “Boy’s a Liar, Pt. 2”

This is vying to become the third collaboration by two women in the past four years to land a nod in this category. Megan Thee Stallion’s “Savage” (featuring Beyoncé) was nominated three years ago, and Doja Cat’s “Kiss Me More” (featuring SZA) was a contender two years ago. Hot 100 peak: No. 3.

Rihanna, “Lift Me Up”

This soulful ballad from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever arrived at the start of the eligibility year. This would be Rihanna’s fourth record of the year nominee, and her first on her own. She was previously nominated for collaborations with Jay-Z (“Umbrella”), Eminem (“Love the Way You Lie”) and Drake (“Work”). Hot 100 peak: No. 2.

SZA, “Kill Bill”

This would be SZA’s third record of the year nominee, and her first on her own. She was previously nominated for collaborations with Kendrick Lamar (“All the Stars”) and Doja Cat (“Kiss Me More”). Hot 100 peak: No. 1 (one week).

Taylor Swift, “Anti-Hero”

This would be Swift’s fifth nod in this category. She was previously nominated for “You Belong With Me,” “We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together,” “Shake It Off” and “Blank Space.” Swift would be the first artist whose first five nominations in this category were for solo recordings (and not collaborations or group/duo recordings) since Frank Sinatra in the ’50s and ’60s. Hot 100 peak: No. 1 (eight weeks).

Morgan Wallen, “Last Night”

This single and/or Combs’ “Fast Car” would be the first country single (going by Grammy performance category placements) to receive a record of the year nod since Lady A’s “Need You Now” 13 years ago (which won). Taylor Swift’s subsequent “We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together” topped Billboard’s Hot Country Songs chart, but vied for a performance nod in the pop field at the Grammys. Hot 100 peak: No. 1 (13 weeks).

Within Reach: Zach Bryan featuring Maggie Rogers, “Dawns”; Lana Del Rey, “A&W”; Jelly Roll, “Need a Favor”; Labrinth, “Never Felt So Alone”; Coi Leray, “Players”; Lil Uzi Vert, “Just Wanna Rock”; Dua Lipa, “Dance the Night”; Janelle Monáe, “Lipstick Lover”; Paramore, “This Is Why”; P!nk, “Trustfall”; Olivia Rodrigo, “Vampire”; Ed Sheeran, “Eyes Closed”; Toosii, “Favorite Song”; Tanya Tucker & Brandi Carlile, “Ready As I’ll Never Be”

Last year, six of the 10 record of the year nominees were also nominated for this songwriter’s award. This year, five out of eight could double up. Luke Combs’ “Fast Car” won’t be eligible because it was already well-known. Tracy Chapman was nominated in this category in 1988 for writing it.

“A&W”
Songwriters: Lana Del Rey, Jack Antonoff, Sam Dew

Del Rey and Antonoff were nominated in this category four years ago for co-writing “Norman F–king Rockwell.” He won this honor 11 years ago for co-writing fun.’s “We Are Young” (featuring Janelle Monáe). This would be Dew’s first nomination in the category.

“All My Life”
Songwriters: Lil Durk, J. Cole, Dr. Luke, Rocco Did It Again!, Ryan OG, LunchMoney Lewis, Theron “Uptown AP” Thomas

This would be Dr. Luke’s third nomination in this category following nods for Katy Perry’s “Roar” and the Doja Cat-SZA collaboration “Kiss Me More.”

“Anti-Hero”
Songwriters: Taylor Swift, Jack Antonoff

“Anti-Hero” could give Swift a record seventh nomination for song of the year, which would surpass Paul McCartney and Lionel Richie for the most nods in the history of the category. Surprisingly, this would be the first Swift-Antonoff collaboration to be nominated for this award.

“Flowers”
Songwriters: Miley Cyrus, Gregory “Aldae” Hein, Michael Pollack

This would be the first nod in this category for all three co-writers. The song is a modern twist on such hits as “You Don’t Bring Me Flowers,” a nominee in this category 45 years ago, and Bruno Mars’ “When I Was Your Man,” a nominee for best pop solo performance 10 years ago.

“Kill Bill”
Songwriters: SZA, Carter Lang, Rob Bisel

This would be SZA’s third nod in this category; she was among the co-writers of “All the Stars” and “Kiss Me More.” Lang was also nominated in this category for co-writing the latter. Bisel was nominated for record of the year as an engineer-mixer on the irresistible pop smash.

“Lift Me Up”
Songwriters: Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna, Tems, Ryan Coogler

This would be the first nomination in this category for Rihanna, Tems and director Coogler. Göransson won this award five years ago for co-writing Childish Gambino’s “This Is America.” “Lift Me Up” would be the first Academy Award nominee for best original song to also be nominated for the top songwriting Grammy since “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah two years ago.

“Need a Favor”
Songwriters: Jelly Roll, Rob Ragosta, Joe Ragosta, Austin Nivarel

This song, released as the lead single from Jelly Roll’s breakthrough album, Whitsitt Chapel, has a refreshingly honest and affecting chorus, which begins: “I only talk to God when I need a favor/And I only pray when I ain’t got a prayer.”

“Ready As I’ll Never Be”
Songwriters: Brandi Carlile, Tanya Tucker

This would be Carlile’s fifth nomination in this category and Tucker’s second. They previously collaborated on “Bring My Flowers Now,” a nominee here two years ago. “Ready As I’ll Never Be,” which was featured in the 2022 documentary The Return of Tanya Tucker, could also receive a nod for best song written for visual media.

Within Reach: “Boy’s a Liar, Pt. 2,” PinkPantheress & Ice Spice; “Dance the Night,” Dua Lipa; “Dawns,” Zach Bryan featuring Maggie Rogers; “Eyes Closed,” Ed Sheeran; “Growin’ Up and Gettin’ Old,” Luke Combs; “Last Night,” Morgan Wallen; “Lipstick Lover,” Janelle Monáe; “Never Felt So Alone,” Labrinth; “Players,” Coi Leray; “Thank God,” Kane Brown & Kaitlyn Brown; “This Is Why,” Paramore; “Trustfall,” P!nk; “Vampire,” Olivia Rodrigo

Though The Record is boygenius’ first album, the trio won’t be eligible here because one of its members, Phoebe Bridgers, is a previous Grammy nominee. She received four nods, including best new artist, three years ago.

Zach Bryan and GloRilla probably won’t be eligible because they were nominated in performance categories last year. The Grammy rulebook makes an exception for such artists, provided they hadn’t at the time of those nominations released enough material to be “eligible in this category for the first time.” Bryan and GloRilla were both eligible and entered for best new artist last year.

The Grammy screening committee will have the final say on whether Coi Leray and Jelly Roll are eligible. Neither has been nominated before, but both have been around awhile. Leray was nominated for best new artist at the BET Awards two years ago, and Jelly Roll has been releasing records since 2011.

Gracie Abrams

Aaron Dessner and Matias Tellez co-produced the singer-songwriter’s first studio album, Good Riddance. Abrams has served as an opening act on Olivia Rodrigo’s Sour tour and Taylor Swift’s The Eras Tour. Fun fact: Abrams’ father, J.J. Abrams, won two Primetime Emmy Awards as executive producer/director of Lost.

Ice Spice

The rapper, born Isis Naija Gaston, has landed four top 10 hits on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2023 thanks to collaborations with PinkPantheress (“Boy’s a Liar, Pt. 2”) and past best new artist nominees Taylor Swift (“Karma”) and Nicki Minaj (“Princess Diana,” “Barbie World”). Ice Spice was nominated for best new artist at the 2023 BET Awards.

Jelly Roll

The rapper turned country artist had a star-making night in April at the CMT Music Awards, where he performed “Need a Favor” and won three trophies. Jelly Roll, born Jason Bradley DeFord, will turn 39 in December, which would make him the oldest individual nominee in this category since Andrea Bocelli, who was 40 when he was nominated 25 years ago.

Coco Jones

Jones won best new artist at the BET Awards, beating GloRilla and Ice Spice. The former child star was featured on Radio Disney’s The Next Big Thing in 2010-11 and starred in the Disney Channel film Let It Shine in 2012. Her breakthrough track, “ICU,” reached No. 63 on the Hot 100 in May. Jones was also featured on a track on Babyface’s 2022 album, Girls Night Out.

Noah Kahan

The singer-songwriter’s third album, Stick Season, vaulted to No. 3 on the Billboard 200 following the release of an expanded edition in June. It will probably be nominated for best Americana album or best folk album.

PinkPantheress

The British singer-songwriter was nominated for the rising star award at the Ivor Novello Awards in 2022. She won the BBC’s Sound of 2022 poll and has been nominated for three NME Awards. “Boy’s a Liar, Pt. 2” reached No. 3 on the Hot 100.

Peso Pluma

The Mexican singer-songwriter-rapper born Hassan Emilio Kabande Laija is vying to become the third Latin artist to be nominated in this category in the past five years, following Rosalía and Anitta. Génesis, his third studio album, entered the Billboard 200 at No. 3, becoming the highest-charting regional Mexican album to date.

Bailey Zimmerman

The singer-songwriter’s first studio album, Religiously. The Album, reached No. 7 on the Billboard 200. Zimmerman was nominated for new male artist of the year at the Academy of Country Music Awards in May.

Within Reach: Lola Brooke, Doechii, Fifty Fifty, FLO, HARDY, JVKE, Kelela, RAYE, Rema, Toosii, The War and Treaty, Hailey Whitters

This story will appear in the July 15, 2023, issue of Billboard.

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